SpaceX (SPCX) Stock: Analysts Clash Over $153 Price as Bear Arguments Gain Traction

Key Takeaways

• SPCX currently hovers around $153, representing a 24% decline from its $200 post-IPO high
• Bank of America established a $235 target, though the valuation methodology has drawn scrutiny
• Major banks including Goldman Sachs ($205), Morgan Stanley ($300), and Citi ($200) maintain Buy recommendations
• Skeptics highlight concerns over untested orbital computing facilities, Starship reliability challenges, and questionable AI economics
• Wall Street’s average target sits at $245.96, suggesting potential 61.6% gains from present prices

As of July 9, SpaceX (SPCX) stock hovers around $153, erasing the entire rally that followed its June 12 public debut. After touching $200, shares have retreated 24%, sparking intense debate about the company’s trajectory.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

Major financial institutions rolled out aggressive price projections immediately following the offering. Goldman Sachs launched coverage with a Buy rating alongside a $205 target. Morgan Stanley pushed even further with a $300 forecast. Citi analyst John Godyn issued a Buy with a $200 objective, emphasizing the company’s extended growth runway. Notably, all three firms participated in underwriting the IPO.

Bank of America’s Ronald Epstein contributed a $235 target, though his approach sparked questions. His team employed a discounted cash flow analysis projecting nearly two decades ahead — extending to 2045. Traditional DCF frameworks usually span five to ten years. Such elongated timeframes often suggest valuations that lack near-term grounding.

Why Analysts Are Bullish

Goldman’s Eric Sheridan contended that SpaceX has established commanding market positions across three verticals: rocket launches (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Starship), Starlink broadband services, and artificial intelligence infrastructure. His view suggests these sectors could reach multi-trillion-dollar valuations within five years.

Epstein outlined a self-reinforcing cycle: launch capabilities enable space-based applications, these applications produce revenue, and that capital finances additional infrastructure development. Across 22 Buy ratings, four Hold positions, and one Sell recommendation, the consensus target stands at $245.96 — indicating 61.6% potential appreciation from current trading levels.

The Skeptical Perspective

Not all observers share this enthusiasm. CFRA analyst Keith Snyder carries a Sell rating with a Street-low $115 target, contending the current valuation assumes flawless execution across numerous ambitious ventures simultaneously.

Morningstar’s Nicolas Owens takes an even dimmer view, assigning SPCX a $63 fair value. He argues the IPO pricing only holds water under the most aggressive “Moonshot” scenario — one demanding both rapid Starship reusability and economically viable orbital computing facilities.

These space-based data centers form a cornerstone of the AI investment narrative, yet they’re encountering substantial criticism. A former NASA engineer writing as Taranis published detailed analysis questioning the concept’s feasibility — highlighting thermal management, radiation exposure, and latency issues as fundamental obstacles. SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son noted that any power efficiencies gained from orbital data centers would be offset by launch expenses, ongoing maintenance, and communication delays.

SpaceX’s S-1 filing outlines a $28.5 trillion total addressable market, with $26.5 trillion attributed to artificial intelligence. This represents a substantial wager on a sector experiencing margin compression. OpenAI — the leading AI model developer — saw its net loss surge from $5.09 billion in 2024 to $38.53 billion in 2025, based on leaked audited statements confirmed by the Financial Times.

SpaceX is presently leasing surplus AI computing power to Anthropic and recently finalized an agreement with Google (GOOGL). This excess capacity scenario suggests constrained demand for its proprietary AI offerings.

Low Earth orbit crowding introduces additional risk factors. A 2026 study revealed that the “CRASH Clock” — tracking collision probability — has plummeted from 164 days in 2018 to merely 2.5 days in 2026.

Despite a Strong Buy consensus on TipRanks, the price target spectrum — stretching from $63 to $300 — underscores the profound disagreement among market participants.