Solana (SOL) Price: The Golden Cross That Could Propel SOL Back to $200

TLDR

• Solana’s exchange balances dropped nearly 10%, signaling reduced selling pressure
• CME futures open interest remains steady despite price decline, showing institutional confidence
• A potential golden crossover is forming on the daily chart between 100-day and 200-day EMAs
• Technical analysis suggests possible targets of $176 and beyond if key resistance levels are broken
• On-chain data shows over $200 million recently bridged to Solana, with $113 million from Ethereum

Solana’s recent price action has been disappointing for investors, with the cryptocurrency dropping nearly 10% over the past week. Despite reaching close to $200 just a few weeks ago, SOL has pulled back to hover around the $160 support level. However, a closer look at several key metrics reveals that a recovery may be on the horizon.

Currently trading at $168, Solana has maintained a 10% increase over the past three months despite the recent correction. This resilience points to underlying strength in the asset even as short-term price movements trend downward.

One of the most promising signals comes from exchange data. Solana’s balance on centralized exchanges has dropped sharply from 33.06 million on July 23 to 30.78 million by August 5. This 10% reduction suggests fewer tokens are available for immediate selling, often a precursor to price rebounds.

More telling is that Solana’s price has once again moved above the exchange supply trendline. This crossover has historically preceded short-term rallies. Previous instances saw SOL jump from $173 to $205 in six days following a similar crossover on July 16, and from $182 to $188 in just three sessions after the July 24 crossover.

The institutional picture also offers cause for optimism. Solana’s CME futures open interest has remained steady even as the spot price declined, creating what traders call a bullish divergence.

The most crucial support level for Solana $SOL is $165. Key resistance levels to watch are $177 and $189. pic.twitter.com/B5Hw2SrE5n

— Ali (@ali_charts) August 5, 2025

For example, on August 1, CME open interest held at 3.07 million while SOL’s price dropped from $162 to $158, before quickly rebounding to $169. This pattern was also observed between July 25 and 27, preceding another price bounce.

Technical Indicators Signal Potential Upside

The most compelling technical signal is forming on Solana’s daily chart. The 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is approaching a crossover above the 200-day EMA, a pattern known as a golden crossover. This setup typically signals the beginning of a stronger uptrend and occasionally triggers rallies.

If SOL can hold above $160 support and reclaim $176, the short-term trend could turn bullish. A break above $188 would put $200 back in play, while falling below $155 would risk further downside, with complete trend invalidation occurring under $142.

Solana Price on CoinGecko

Some market analysts are even more optimistic. Technical patterns similar to those that drove a 70% rally in 2024 are reforming, with some forecasts suggesting Solana could reach as high as $340 if history repeats itself.

The range between $161 and $166 appears to be forming a solid support zone that could serve as a launchpad for a rally past $250, according to analyst Mary Emerald. Her analysis points to the golden cross pattern as a potential catalyst for breaking above $200 and eventually testing $255.

On-Chain Activity Shows Growing Ecosystem Strength

Beyond price action, on-chain data reveals growing interest in the Solana ecosystem. Users have bridged over $200 million to Solana from other blockchains, with $113 million coming from Ethereum alone. Arbitrum and Base contributed $37.73 million and $24.86 million respectively, indicating rising demand for Solana-based decentralized finance applications.

Derivative metrics show spot net outflow on the Solana network reached $17.21 million on August 6, aligning with the overall reduction in exchange reserves. This continued trend could help eliminate selling pressure and activate momentum for further accumulation.

Whale activity also points to confidence in SOL’s future, with reports of one large investor acquiring 71,000 SOL worth approximately $12 million in a single transaction.

The Solana ecosystem continues to expand its infrastructure. Phantom, the network’s popular wallet, recently acquired Solsniper to add on-chain analytics to its services. This strategic move aims to create a comprehensive hub for consumer finance with features like instant execution, token analytics, and wallet tracking.

With increasing user growth and adoption of Solana-based products across staking protocols, mobile applications, and non-custodial DeFi solutions, the network appears well-positioned for continued growth.

The key levels to watch in the near term are the resistance points at $177 and $189. Breaking these barriers could confirm the bullish outlook and set Solana on a path to retest $200.