SK Hynix forecasts memory chip shortage will last through 2030

SK Hynix thinks the memory chip crunch is nowhere near over. The South Korean chipmaker says it expects demand for memory to keep outpacing supply all the way through 2030.

The call came on October 28, 2026, alongside record third-quarter results.

Record revenue and a long runway

SK Hynix reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of 104.6155 trillion won. It was the first time the company had ever cleared the 100 trillion won mark in a single quarter.

The drivers were the products that power AI data centers. High-bandwidth memory (HBM), server DRAM, and enterprise SSDs led the way.

The company pointed to two structural reasons for its long shortage forecast. First, leading-edge manufacturing has become extremely difficult. Second, new fabrication plants take a long time to build.

SK Hynix is also locking in customers early. Long-term agreements with 14 customers, including major cloud providers, already cover more than 50% of the company’s expected production capacity for 2027 and 2028.

2027 could be the tightest year yet

CEO Kwak Noh-jung flagged 2027 as a potential peak for the gap between demand and supply.

Kwak said 2027 could be the worst year in the history of memory supply because of ongoing shortages.

The company is trying to expand to meet demand. Its plans include new fabrication facilities in South Korea and the US.

SK Hynix is also shifting its product mix toward the next generation of AI memory. It projects that HBM4 will overtake its predecessor, HBM3E, in both revenue and volume by the end of the fourth quarter of 2026.

On the capacity front, the company’s M15X fab is expected to reach full capacity by the end of 2026.

What this means for buyers, rivals, and investors

The more than 50% of 2027 and 2028 capacity already committed under long-term deals tells you who has an edge. Large cloud customers with the scale to sign multi-year agreements are getting in line first.

For SK Hynix, the forecast reinforces a strong position. A record quarter, a shift toward higher-value HBM4, and contracted demand give it visibility that memory makers rarely enjoy.

SK Hynix competes in this market alongside Samsung and Micron.

Several markers are worth watching in the months ahead. One is whether HBM4 actually overtakes HBM3E by the end of the fourth quarter of 2026. Another is whether the M15X fab hits full capacity on schedule by year-end. A third is how quickly the new facilities in South Korea and the US come online.