UPDATED, Friday PM: What an intriguing, potentially low weekend at the box office. Even though this weekend could come in lower than last year’s January finale/February intro frame (which was $86.1 million, per Box Office Mojo), there’s some stunning things going on in regards to the novelty fare on offer.
Here we have a YouTuber’s genre movie, Iron Lung, with very little P&A, that could possibly upset Disney/20th Century Studios’ Dylan O’Brien-Rachel McAdams big studio spend movie Send Help for No. 1. Estimates right now have Send Help between $16M-$18M, and Iron Lung doing anywhere between $14M-$17M at 3,015 theaters. The question is how fan-frontloaded Iron Lung is. Currently, Send Help is showing hourly growth, with Iron Lung presales beefing up today (combined previews and Friday are around $9M+). Send Help‘s Friday and previews are around $7M+.
RELATED: YouTube Star Markiplier’s ‘Iron Lung’ Hopes To Soak Up A Ton Of Oxygen At January Box Office
Coming in at third is Amazon MGM Studios’ Brett Ratner-directed documentary Melania, which is eyeing $2.85M today (no previews) for an $8M opening in third place — that result would mark the best start for a docu in the last decade (beating Angel Studios’ 2023 doc After Death, which opened to $5M and finaled at $11.5M stateside). I’m hearing sales are gaining, with Florida and Texas quite large, for the First Lady’s big-screen debut.
EntTelligence showed Melania presales overindexing in rural areas with populations under 500,000. Again, license fees plus marketing on this pic equals $75M, but Amazon can afford it, even though those figures don’t make sense for a traditional motion picture studio’s P&L. Are MAGA groups driving sales? Maybe, but that will be sussed out as the weekend goes on. Know this: This isn’t an Angel Studios release fueled by some semblance of fan sales or an Amazon Prime super-ticket.
RELATED: At ‘Melania’ Premiere, Brett Ratner And The First Lady Defend Cost Of Amazon MGM Documentary
Elsewhere this frame, Disney’s 10th weekend of Zootopia 2 is eyeing $6M, while Avatar: Fire and Ash and Amazon MGM Studios’ Mercy are about $5M apiece. Mercy is down 54% with a 10-day cume by Sunday of $19.2M. Avatar 3 will be down 22% for a running cume of $385.6M by the end of its seventh weekend. Zootopia 2 is expected to hit $409.1M by Sunday.
Black Bear’s Jason Statham action movie Shelter is falling outside the top 5 with around $4M for the weekend after an estimated $1.5M Friday (that includes previews).
In terms of marketshare of showtimes, The Box Office Company reports that 13% are comprised of Send Help, 10% for Amazon MGM Studios’ Mercy, 9% for Iron Lung, 8% for Shelter, 7% for Zootopia 2, and 6% for Melania.
PREVIOUSLY, Friday AM: Markiplier’s self-financed feature take on the video game Iron Lung broke out with $3.5 million in previews on Thursday night, we’re told. Meanwhile, Sam Raimi’s genre pic Send Help from 20th Century Studios saw $2.2M.
Iron Lung went into the weekend with $6M in presales and is expected to do around $9M-$10M. We hear that the movie cost under $3M and its P&A was bare-bones, with an Instagram post from the YouTuber and a one-sheet printed for its North American debut. Iron Lung held previews Tuesday and Wednesday.
Send Help‘s previews are in line with 2023’s Evil Dead Rise ($2.5M previews, $24.5M opening) and last year’s The Amateur ($2M, $14.8M opening), and higher than M. Night Shyamalan’s A Knock at the Cabin ($1.5M, $14.1M opening in 2023). Send Help‘s numbers include sneaks from last weekend.
Meanwhile, Amazon MGM Studios’ Melania documentary from Brett Ratner didn’t hold previews. Showtimes start today following Thursday night’s premiere in Washington D.C. The movie follows the 20 days before Donald Trump’s 2025 presidential inauguration.
RELATED: Amazon & Friends Roll Out International Red Carpet For ‘Melania’ Doc But Does Anyone Want To See It?
On Thursday, Black Bear’s second theatrical release, Shelter, took in $385,000 from 2,000 theaters. Outlook for the Jason Statham movie is around $5M+.
There’s news of another snowstorm brewing in the Mid-Atlantic U.S., but we understand it’s not going to throw ticket sales off this weekend a la last weekend. In addition, we’re not hearing about circuits closing due to Friday’s anti-ICE national protest.
Below is the Top 5 box office chart for the week:
1. Mercy (AMZ) 3,468 theaters, Wk $14.6M/Wk 1
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th) 3,150 theaters, Wk $9.1M (-57%)/Total $380.1M/Wk 6
3. Zootopia 2 (Dis) 2,930 Wk $7.4M (-49%)/Total $403.1M/Wk 9
4. The Housemaid (LG) 3,007 theaters, Wk $5.9M (-53%), Total $117.1M/Wk 6
5. 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple (Sony) 3,506 theaters, Wk $4.9M (-71%)/Total $22M/Wk 2
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