Senate Banking advances Warsh nomination as DOJ drops Powell probe

The Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair, and the DOJ dropped its probe into Jerome Powell, pushing the market for Warsh’s confirmation by May 15 to 96.3% YES, up from 93% just 24 hours ago.

The Warsh confirmation by May 15 market sat at 30% a week ago and now trades at 96.3% YES. The confirmation by June 30 market is at 99.6% YES.

The market for Jerome Powell being out as Fed Chair by May 14 shows a modest rise to 5.2% YES, while the May 31 and June 30 contracts are at 96.8% and 98.9% YES, respectively. Traders are pricing in Warsh’s confirmation and Powell’s exit as near-certainties on the longer timeframes, with the gap between the May 14 and May 31 Powell contracts suggesting most expect the transition to happen in the second half of May.

Volume hit $65,432 in USDC over the last 24 hours. The order book depth shows it would take $11,481 to move the May 15 market by 5 percentage points, indicating real liquidity behind these prices. The largest price move in the past day was a 2-point spike at 2:59 PM.

At 96¢ per YES share, Warsh’s confirmation offers a 1.04x return, which is minimal upside unless you expect a derailment. The main risk is Senate procedural delays or a sudden shift in support among committee members. The NO side at 4¢ pays 25x if confirmation slips past the May 15 deadline.

Watch for statements from Senate Banking Committee Republicans and any new developments around Powell. Changes to the Senate floor schedule or unexpected procedural maneuvers could shift the May 15 odds, even if the June 30 contract stays pinned near 100%.

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Fed chair confirmation bullish

96% FLAT

Jerome powell out as Fed chair bullish

5% FLAT