Saudi-backed forces launch campaign against Houthis after Red Sea gains

Photo: Tom Fisk / Pexels

Saudi-backed forces in Yemen have initiated a military campaign aimed at defeating the Houthi militia, which controls significant portions of the country. This development marks an escalation in the long-standing conflict, which has seen various periods of intense fighting and diplomatic efforts. The campaign follows recent Houthi territorial gains along the Red Sea coast, including control over strategic locations such as Mokha and parts of the Bab el-Mandeb area. The increased military activity comes after a relatively calm period following the 2022 UN-brokered ceasefire.

Key Takeaways

• The campaign suggests heightened military tensions between Saudi-backed forces and the Houthi militia, potentially altering the conflict dynamics.
• Market pricing indicates an increased probability of Houthi forces advancing towards Aden, with odds for a Houthi arrival by October 31 rising to 12.5%.
• The renewed offensive appears consistent with scenarios where the Houthis could capitalize on recent territorial gains.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor military developments around Aden, specifically any verified Houthi advances or strategic gains in nearby areas like Lahj or Al-Anad Air Base. Key indicators of a potential shift in control will be reports from credible sources confirming Houthi movements near Aden’s administrative boundary. Additionally, any changes in Saudi or UAE military support could impact the conflict’s trajectory and market outlook. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether the current campaign leads to significant territorial changes or a new stalemate.