SAG Awards: Who Could Soar and What Could Win

Awards season is officially up and running with the 31st Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards set to stream on Netflix Feb. 23. The SAG Awards have the ability to be a major indicator of how the Academy Awards will play out. On the television side, the SAG Awards mark the first major awards the year, potentially honoring the shows that could be leaders throughout the Emmy season down the line. 

The ceremony, hosted by Kristen Bell, will honor Jane Fonda with the Life Achievement Award, and since the nominees were announced virtually due to the L.A. wildfires, this will be an important way to celebrate the industry and encourage it to continue filming in the state of California.

Here, Variety takes a look at the pool of nominees — from the blockbuster hits to the streaming must-watch shows.

Film

 SAG Loves a Song

It’s no surprise that actors would be drawn to films about performance, and 2024 was a banner year for music. The big-screen adaptation of the musical “Wicked” led nominations with six nods while the largely Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez” landed three. Although not a traditional musical, the Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown” scored a total of four nominations. All three films boast large ensemble casts and have passionate advocates (and critics, as well) and will also compete for the best ensemble prize. 

The ensemble category is rounded out by two other acclaimed films. “Conclave” also features a roster of beloved actors, from Ralph Fiennes to Stanley Tucci to John Lithgow, but Isabella Rossellini missed out on an individual nom in supporting female actor — though she still went on to score the Oscar nod. In many ways, “Anora” performed above expectations. While much acclaim has been paid to breakout star Mikey Madison, supporting actor Yura Borisov also landed SAG and Oscar noms for his role, and the entire cast of largely unknown actors snagged a spot in the coveted ensemble lineup, tying it with “Emilia Pérez” for three nods. Although the ensemble award doesn’t necessarily corrollate to a best picture win, a victory for “Anora” here would be extra confirmation of it’s frontrunner status after the film won DGA and PGA last weekend.

 An Oscars Match

The SAG Awards are generally the most reliable predictor of which actors will triumph at the Oscars, thanks to overlapping voters (the actors branch is the largest voting branch at the Academy). While the nominations rarely line up perfectly between the two parties, this year offers more wild cards than usual. In the lead female actor race, Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”), Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”), Madison and Demi Moore (“The Substance”) are nominated at both SAG and Oscars. But SAG voters chose to single out Pamela Anderson for her career-defining turn in “The Last Showgirl,” while the Oscars recognized Golden Globe winner Fernanda Torres for “I’m Still Here.” Torres is considered a viable threat for best actress at the Oscars, so it will be interesting to see how SAG will lean. 

In male actor in a lead role, it’s Daniel Craig playing against type in “Queer” that was feted by SAG but blanked by Oscar. Instead, Sebastian Stan earned a slot at the Academy Awards for channeling Donald Trump in “The Apprentice” — and one has to assume he was close for SAG, as his co-star Jeremy Strong was recognized in the supporting category. Competing at both shows will be Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”), Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), Colman Domingo (“Sing  Sing”) and Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”). 

 Showing Support

The supporting actor categories also offer opportunities for surprises, with several actors competing who aren’t nominated for Oscars. Though Brody was recognized for lead, his “Brutalist” co-stars Guy Pearce and Felicity Jones missed at SAG — but all three are Oscar-nominated. In male supporting, the nominees at SAG are Jonathan Bailey (“Wicked”), Borisov, Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”), Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”) and Strong. Only Bailey failed to repeat at Oscars. 

In female supporting actor, the three actors recognized by both organizations are Monica Barbaro (“A Complete Unknown”), Ariana Grande (“Wicked”) and Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”). SAG clearly went big for “The Last Showgirl,” as in addition to Anderson they nominated Jamie Lee Curtis here. And “The Piano Lesson” standout Danielle Deadwyler was recognized by actors, but not the Academy. (A similar fate befell her in 2023 when she was recognized by SAG for her work in “Till” but ultimately not Oscar- nominated.) Instead, Jones and Rossellini will compete at the Academy Awards.

TV

 Why SAG Matters for TV

Sure, the Golden Globes already took place in January, but the actors’ votes weigh heavier than those of the foreign press, and many times, a bigger influence on what the studios will be focusing on in the upcoming TV FYC season. The nominees were chosen by 2,500 randomly selected members of  SAG-AFTRA. Then the winners are then selected by the entire organization, made up of 160,000 professional members. 

 A Final Bow

After dominating the Emmys and Golden Globes, a few of the huge 2024 hits will have one last chance to be honored at the SAG Awards. FX’s “Shōgun” has swept all the shows and could just do the same since it’s the most-nominated program of the year with five nods: acting honors for Tadanobu Asano, Hiroyuki Sanada and Anna Sawai, and show nominations for drama ensemble and stunt team. It’s perfect timing, since, in the ensemble drama category, none of last year’s nominees are nominated. Other than “Shōgun,” nominees include Netflix’s “Bridgerton” and “The Diplomat,” Peacock’s “The Day of the Jackal” and Apple TV+’s “Slow Horses.”

This is also the final bow for Netflix’s “Baby Reindeer,” which made a giant splash at the last awards season. Both creator and star Richard Gadd and star Jessica Gunning won Emmys and are up for the SAG honor. Lily Gladstone is also nominated for the last time for Hulu’s “Under the Bridge,” as is Jodie Foster for HBO’s “True Detective: Night Country.”

 No Laughing Matter

In last year’s comedy race, “The Bear” dominated with both Jeremy Allen White and Ayo Edebiri winning the lead honors and the cast winning for ensemble. But this year adds Max’s “Hacks” back into the mix. The Jean Smart-led series has never won comedy ensemble, but Smart took home the female comedy actor trophy in 2022 and 2023. The 2022 ensemble winner “Abbott Elementary” has returned to the race, along with Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building” and Apple TV+’s “Shrinking.”

Other shakeups in the comedy category include the addition of Liza Colón-Zayas of “The Bear” into the race — and she did take home the supporting Emmy last year. Netflix’s “Nobody Wants This” is also in the mix this year with both Kristen Bell and Adam Brody landing acting nods. While neither Steve Martin nor Jason Segel scored nominations for “Only
Murders in the Building” and “Shrinking,” respectively, their co-stars Martin Short and
Harrison Ford did.

 Make It a Double

It wouldn’t be fair to run through the nominees without honoring Kathy Bates. The two-time SAG Award winner not only landed a drama actress nod for CBS’ “Matlock” reimagining, but also a TV movie actress nod for her role in HBO’s “The Great Lillian Hall.”