Russian military satellite closes from 200 miles to 3 miles of US radar craft aiding Ukraine

A Russian military satellite, Cosmos 2612, has closed to roughly 3 miles, from a previous distance of more than 200 miles, of the U.S.-owned radar satellite that operates in a fleet that supports Ukraine, Axios reports. The unapproved rendezvous in low Earth orbit, which astronomer Jonathan McDowell says may be the first of its kind, raises alarm in the West. The position change, which was likely not an accident as fuel is scarce, is probably a provocation and an attempt to spy on the satellite.

LeoLabs said in a statement Friday that the movement “appears to be a deliberate approach” toward ICEYE-X36, with uncertain intent and behavior that “warrants continued monitoring.” Roughly 3 miles is too close for comfort in satellite terms: there is no strict legal limit on how close satellites can get, but countries generally keep at least 6 miles (9.7 km) apart, University of Mississippi space law professor Aaron Brynildson told Axios. The approach was made without the owner’s consent, and Russia hasn’t said what the military satellite carries.

Some clues may come from the target’s operational purpose. ICEYE-X36 is a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite which can image through cloud cover and at night. It was launched in March 2024 on a SpaceX Falcon 9. It’s registered to ICEYE US, the U.S. arm of the Finland-founded company. The satellite, which is in a roughly 545 km (339 mi) sun-synchronous orbit, is part of a fleet that has supplied Ukraine with information since 2022. This includes a deal earlier this year with a customer in Ukraine’s defense ministry, but a Ukrainian official told Axios it’s unclear whether ICEYE-X36 itself supports the country; ICEYE and the Defense Department declined to comment.

In May, the majority of the six military satellites Russia launched in April via a Soyuz-2.1b, Cosmos 2609–2614, shifted their orbits about 0.8 degrees to match X36’s orbital plane. Cosmos 2609 passed within 2.5 km (1.6 mi) on May 26. Cosmos 2612, on the other hand, drifted off X36’s plane by about 0.24 degrees by Sept. 30, up to about 28 km side to side, according to Greg Gillinger, a space analyst with Integrity ISR.

Then, Cosmos 2612 made separate burns from Sept. 30 through Oct. 16 to match altitude, eccentricity, and orbital period, Dutch satellite tracker Marco Langbroek wrote. By Saturday night, he estimated from public orbital data, it was within “a few hundred meters or possibly (much) closer.”

These movements appear deliberate and cost a lot of fuel, which the Center for Strategic and International Studies calls “a limited resource on a satellite.” Close-proximity work can be benign, it says, but policymakers should assume the Russian satellite “could take an action that threatens the commercial satellite,” and the U.S. and Europe should decide how to respond to any hostile act in space and make a statement on the decision. Back in July 2020, Russia’s Cosmos 2543 released an object at up to 186 m/s (416 mph) relative to itself, an action which was condemned by the U.S. and U.K.

Intent was less clear earlier this year, when McDowell told Meduza the orbital data showed no sign of the stable, close distance that tracking ICEYE-X36 would require. Now, he says it is an unapproved meeting and is not alone. Gillinger says the setup “removes any remaining doubt for me that Cosmos 2612 is interested in ICEYE X36.” Langbroek adds that “I was skeptical” at first but now calls it “completely non-consensual,” though he cautions it would be difficult to pin any X36 failures on 2612’s actions.

In a Reuters report less than two weeks ago, ICEYE CEO Rafal Modrzewski said the company moved its satellite after May, only to draw more Russian maneuvers, which Germany’s Space Command head, Maj. Gen. Michael Traut, described as “chasing.” Belinda Marchand, chief scientist at U.S. space intelligence firm Slingshot Aerospace, added that the moves may have been meant for surveillance, to prepare for future interference, or to signal capability. Western officials reportedly describe such trailing as a way to gather intelligence and test the West’s tolerance.

No statement from Russia is on record. Gillinger also told readers to “watch Cosmos 2611 and 2613, whose planes are converging on ICEYE X37’s,” with crossings expected around Nov. 6 and Nov. 15.

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