Porsche (P911) Stock Rallies After Goldman Sachs Lifts Rating to Buy

Key Takeaways

• Porsche AG received a ratings lift from Goldman Sachs, moving from “neutral” to “buy” with a revised 12-month price objective of €59 (previously €39)
• Shares settled at €47.73, indicating the updated target represents approximately 23.6% potential appreciation
• Goldman reduced its fiscal 2026 earnings per share projection by 10.2% to €1.79 while boosting the FY2028 forecast by 11.7% to €3.37
• Chinese market deliveries are projected to decline to approximately 28,000 vehicles in fiscal 2026, a dramatic fall from the 93,000 units delivered in fiscal 2022
• An independent discounted cash flow evaluation from Simply Wall St places fair value at €41.11, indicating potential overvaluation at present trading levels

Goldman Sachs elevated its stance on Porsche AG (P911) to “buy” from “neutral” this Thursday, simultaneously increasing the 12-month price objective to €59 from the previous €39 mark. Trading concluded at €47.73 prior to the announcement, positioning the revised target at approximately 23.6% above current levels.

Porsche Automobil Holding SE, POAHF

The financial institution now applies a 20x target multiple — elevated from the prior 15x — based on an equal weighting of fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 earnings per share projections. This updated objective translates to 14.5x when measured against estimated FY2029 EPS.

Goldman trimmed its fiscal 2026 EPS outlook by 10.2% down to €1.79, acknowledging immediate-term challenges. However, the bank elevated its FY2028 EPS projection by 11.7% to €3.37, anticipating an earnings compound annual growth rate through 2030 of 30%.

The modified projections stem from two primary near-term catalysts: product mix stabilization for the 911 lineup and overhead expense optimization.

Regarding the 911 range, Goldman highlighted that supplier force-majeure issues during late 2024 resulted in early-stage deliveries of the refreshed 992.2 generation tilting heavily toward entry-level and mid-range specifications. This shift temporarily suppressed average transaction values.

Goldman currently anticipates 911 average selling price expansion of roughly 12% in fiscal 2026 and 5% in fiscal 2027, significantly exceeding Visible Alpha consensus projections of 5.9% and 2.4% for the respective periods.

Product mix dynamics are anticipated to stabilize by 2027 — mirroring the trajectory of the preceding 992 generation, which achieved optimal mix composition during years three through four of its lifecycle.

Expense Management Under Scrutiny

On the expenditure front, Goldman observed that Porsche’s selling, general, and administrative costs represented 12.9% of consolidated revenue in fiscal 2025. This compares unfavorably to Ferrari’s 9%, BMW’s 7.9%, and Mercedes-Benz’s 9.2%. Meaningful optimization opportunities exist.

The bank further highlighted that merely 76.5% of Porsche’s 41,800-strong workforce falls under the organization’s employment security commitment extending through 2030 — a detail warranting attention as efficiency initiatives accelerate.

Consolidated EBIT is projected at €2.22 billion in fiscal 2026, advancing to €3.11 billion in fiscal 2027 and €4.17 billion in fiscal 2028. Operating margins are anticipated to strengthen from 6.7% in fiscal 2026 to 9.7% by fiscal 2028.

Chinese Market Pressures Persist

China remains a significant headwind for volume performance. Goldman projects merely 28,000 deliveries in fiscal 2026 and 23,000 in fiscal 2027 — representing a dramatic contraction from the 93,000 vehicles sold in fiscal 2022. China’s contribution to overall deliveries is expected to shrink to 11% in fiscal 2026 and 9.5% in fiscal 2027.

Consolidated group deliveries are forecast at 250,459 units in fiscal 2026 and 246,201 in fiscal 2027, reflecting volume contractions of 10% and 2% respectively.

Not all market observers align with Goldman’s bullish perspective. A discounted cash flow analysis conducted by Simply Wall St establishes Porsche’s fundamental value at €41.11 per share — approximately 17.5% beneath the recent closing price of €48.29. The firm’s valuation assessment assigned Porsche a score of 0 out of 6, highlighting a price-to-earnings ratio of 140.55x versus an industry benchmark of 15.68x.

Over the trailing 30-day period, P911 has appreciated 13%. Year-to-date performance shows more measured gains of 1.4%.