Polymarket users bet Biden more likely to pardon SBF than Ross Ubricht

United States President Joe Biden, scheduled to leave office on Jan. 20, still has time to issue pardons and commute the sentences of individuals convicted of federal crimes — and some crypto users are betting he turns his attention to the founders of Silk Road and FTX.

As of Jan. 9, cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket gave users 4% odds on President Biden pardoning former FTX CEO Sam “SBF” Bankman-Fried and a 2% chance he would pardon Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht. At the time of publication, users had bet more than $5 million on SBF’s chances and $1.2 million on Ulbricht’s.

Bets on US President Joe Biden issuing pardons. Source: Polymarket

Bankman-Fried, who was convicted of seven felony counts in 2023 for his role in fraud at the cryptocurrency exchange, is currently serving a 25-year sentence but has filed an appeal. Ulbricht was sentenced to life imprisonment without the possibility of parole in 2015 for crimes related to operating the darknet marketplace.

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With 11 days left in office, Biden announced in December that he would commute the sentences of more than 1,500 individuals who “were placed on home confinement during the COVID-19 pandemic.” In a move that sparked controversy from many, he also signed a pardon for his son, Hunter, who faced felony charges related to the purchase of a firearm.

Promises for commuting sentences from Trump

It’s unclear whether President Biden intends to issue any more pardons or commutations before his term ends, but he has the authority to do so for either Ulbricht or Bankman-Fried, or both. President-elect Donald Trump made commuting Ulbricht’s sentence one of his central campaign promises to the crypto industry, but he did not pardon him during his first term in office.

Neither President Biden nor Trump has suggested pardoning SBF, who has received criticism from people in both US political parties for his role in the collapse of the crypto exchange. However, reports suggested that Trump’s advisers were pushing for him to pardon National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden, who has been in exile in Russia since 2013.

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