Polymarket Says the Four Whales Betting Big on Trump Are Actually Just One French Guy

Amid a tight race, people have been looking to the betting markets as a potentially stronger signal for the expected outcome of the November presidential election. Surely people putting their money where their mouths are will have stronger convictions about what’s going to happen, right?

It turns out, however, that just one individual has poured more than $45 million into bets favoring Donald Trump on Polymarket, the crypto-based betting website. The company was forced to investigate after it was discovered that just four accounts were placing disproportionate bets in favor of Trump winning the election.

In a statement to DealBook, Polymarket confirmed that a single trader based in France controls the accounts, a finding they came to following an investigation. Bets on Polymarket are placed using stablecoins, allowing users to remain somewhat anonymous—though with enough effort, blockchain analysis firms can often trace the origins of funds and unmask wallet holders.

Polymarket does not operate in the United States due to a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and there were questions raised about whether an American was bypassing the restriction to sway the betting markets in favor of Trump. It seems that’s not the case, but the finding from Polymarket goes to show that predictive betting sites are easy to manipulate and not a reflection of reality.

A concern critics raise with betting markets like Polymarket is that voters could be swayed by inauthentic sentiment for or against a candidate. It’s the same reason why platforms like X (before Elon took over) would crack down on networks of bot farms spreading inauthentic content—a flood of coordinated messaging from seemingly real accounts might sway undecided voters towards certain beliefs, such as that Trump has more support amongst Americans than he really does.

These types of online signals could be used to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the outcome if Trump doesn’t win. Supporters could point to the strong odds in favor of Trump on the betting markets, or a large amount of (inauthentic) support on X. But this finding from Polymarket should make it clear that it’s pretty much just one individual pushing the odds in his favor, and the betting markets shouldn’t be trusted.

X shouldn’t really be trusted as a reliable signal either, as Elon Musk has used his platform to push hard on his support for Trump, including by taking over the handle @America for his pro-Trump PAC, and censoring leaked internal campaign documents regarding JD Vance. Musk has 200 million followers on X and last year Platformer reported he ordered engineers at the company to boost his engagement.

The latest national polling average compiled by RealClearPolitics has Trump and Harris at a dead heat with 48.7% in favor of Harris and Trump at 48.5%