Polymarket odds for CLARITY Act passage drop to 16% ahead of Senate deadline

The crypto industry’s best shot at a comprehensive regulatory framework is slipping through Congress’s fingers. Polymarket now assigns just a 16% probability that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026, a stunning collapse from the 82% peak the contract hit back in February.

That’s not a typo. A bill that bettors once considered nearly a lock has seen its odds fall by more than 80% in roughly five months. Over $4M in trading volume on the Polymarket contract suggests this isn’t some thinly traded curiosity, either.

What happened to the momentum

The CLARITY Act, formally known as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633), actually had a pretty good run through the House. It passed on July 17, 2025, with a bipartisan vote of 294-134.

The Senate Banking Committee reported on the bill on June 1, 2026, and updated text was released around July 22-23. The revised language incorporated ethics provisions that were supposed to grease the wheels for broader support. Instead, the bill stalled before reaching the Senate floor for debate.

The practical deadline for action before the Senate’s summer recess was approximately August 7, 2026. Negotiators failed to reach a breakthrough before that window closed. By late July, Polymarket odds had already cratered to the 23-28% range, and they’ve continued sliding to the current 14-16% zone as of early August.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, along with key crypto-friendly senators like Cynthia Lummis and Thom Tillis, publicly flagged concerns about the bill’s trajectory heading into the summer break.

Why this bill matters for crypto markets

The CLARITY Act is designed to draw a clear line between which digital assets fall under the SEC’s jurisdiction and which belong to the CFTC. Without this legislation, the regulatory landscape remains a patchwork of enforcement actions, agency guidance documents, and court rulings that sometimes contradict each other.

Some negotiators have floated the idea of pushing the bill into a lame-duck session later this year. But a congested legislative agenda makes that path difficult.

What this means for investors

Polymarket odds represent the aggregated sentiment of speculators. A drop from 82% to 16% captures something real: the legislative window is closing and the people putting money on the outcome have noticed.

The $4M-plus in Polymarket volume signals that some traders are actively positioning around this outcome. At 16% odds, contrarian bettors might see value if they believe a surprise Senate deal could materialize after recess.

The competitive landscape matters here too. Other jurisdictions, notably the EU with its MiCA framework already in effect, continue to move ahead with comprehensive crypto regulation.

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