Polymarket investigates dozens of midterm election bets for insider trading

Polymarket has looked into “dozens” of bets on its midterm election markets for possible insider trading and manipulation. The company’s head of global intelligence and investigations, Shana Bautista, disclosed the figure in an interview with NPR.

At least two of those investigations have been referred to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, according to NPR, which cited a person familiar with the probes. Polymarket itself has not described the referrals in detail.

A surveillance system that never sleeps

The investigations come from a new election surveillance system the company has rolled out. Bautista told NPR that it pulls together campaign finance, crypto and banking data.

The output is not subtle. Bautista said the system produces “hundreds of alerts a day” as the election approaches.

According to the research findings reviewed for this story, the system also draws on social media posts and Federal Election Commission filings. The idea is to cross-reference who is betting against who might know something the public doesn’t.

Early findings reportedly point to specific traders. Investigators flagged patterns such as unusually heavy trading concentration among certain accounts. They also spotted shared device IDs being used across multiple wallets.

Bautista leads a 16-person team responsible for reviewing election trades and suspicious activity, per the research findings.

Two platforms, two very different problems

Polymarket runs two versions of its product. One is a US-regulated platform that requires verified identities. The other is an international platform where users can trade anonymously using crypto.

The surveillance system covers both, according to the research findings.

On the US side, investigators know who each trader is. Matching a name to a campaign donor list or a staffer directory is relatively straightforward.

On the international side, the starting point is a wallet address. Onchain records are public, so investigators can trace how funds move between wallets, even without a name attached.

Bautista joined Polymarket in June 2026 after roles at the FBI and as a cryptocurrency analyst, according to the research findings.

The platform has previously referred more than 100 cases to law enforcement agencies, the research findings state.

Why election markets are a magnet for insiders

The stakes have grown. Open interest in election-related markets topped $250 million across Polymarket and rival Kalshi as of mid-October, according to the research findings.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.