Palantir (PLTR): Q4 Earnings Preview — Key Things to Watch Today

TLDR

• Palantir earnings Monday show analysts forecasting 23 cents EPS and $1.34 billion revenue, representing 62% annual growth
• U.S. commercial revenue expected to jump 121% as quarterly sales breach $1 billion threshold for first time
• December’s Chain Reaction OS launch with Nvidia targets AI infrastructure bottlenecks in power and compute capacity
• $448 million Navy ShipOS contract and renewed France intelligence deal strengthen government revenue base
• Stock trades at 180x forward P/E with 46% free-cash-flow margin despite recent 8.8% six-month decline

Palantir delivers fourth-quarter results Monday afternoon as investors weigh impressive growth against eye-watering valuation. Wall Street expects 23 cents adjusted earnings per share, climbing from 14 cents last year.

Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR

Revenue projections land at $1.34 billion. That marks a 62% increase from the prior year.

The data analytics platform uses AI to help organizations extract meaning from complex information. Its software connects dots that human analysts might miss.

U.S. operations are crushing it. Analysts forecast 80% revenue growth in the fourth quarter, pushing past $1 billion for the first time.

Commercial clients are the main driver. Sales in this segment should rise 121%.

These figures match the trajectory from recent quarters. U.S. business now accounts for about 75% of total revenue, compared to 67% twelve months ago.

Defense Contracts Keep Momentum Rolling

Government work remains a cash cow. December brought a Navy deal valued at up to $448 million.

The ShipOS initiative puts Palantir’s Foundry and AI Platform into shipbuilding workflows. Early tests reportedly slashed planning cycles from weeks to mere minutes.

Submarine manufacturers and shipyards will get the technology next. France’s domestic intelligence agency DGSI also extended its Palantir contract for three more years in December.

Chain Reaction entered the picture last month as Palantir’s answer to AI infrastructure challenges. The operating system addresses power and compute limitations rather than algorithm issues.

Utilities, data centers, and energy companies can use it to upgrade outdated infrastructure. The platform also stabilizes electrical grids facing increased demand from electrification trends.

Nvidia and CenterPoint Energy signed on as founding partners. Their backing adds weight to the project.

HD Hyundai Partnership Expands Into New Territory

January saw Palantir deepen ties with HD Hyundai. The AI and Foundry platform now serves additional subsidiaries including electric systems, robotics, and marine services.

Management framed it as enabling better coordination across business units. The software automates decision-making and streamlines maintenance plus supply chain operations.

Third-quarter performance exceeded expectations. Revenue reached $1.18 billion against analyst forecasts of $1.09 billion.

Earnings landed at 21 cents per share, beating estimates. U.S. revenue jumped 77% year-over-year.

Fourth-quarter guidance came in between $1.327 billion and $1.331 billion. That crushed the Street’s original $1.19 billion consensus.

The company maintains a 46% free-cash-flow margin based on trailing twelve-month results. Cash stockpiles continue expanding.

Palantir separates itself from typical high-growth software firms by actually turning a profit. Most observers don’t question whether it can keep winning commercial business.

Valuation sparks debate though. The forward price-to-earnings ratio hovers around 180, placing it among the market’s priciest stocks.

Only Tesla trades higher with a roughly 209 multiple. Both companies enjoy passionate retail investor followings that prop up share prices.

Shares fell 8.8% over six months. Pre-market action showed a 1.7% dip.

The consensus price target stands at $163.08. Analyst ratings imply about 51% potential upside from current prices.