2 hours ago
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Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir told Trump that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is obstructing US-Iran negotiations. The market predicting Trump will announce the blockade’s end by May 31 is at 78% YES, down from 90% yesterday.
Traders are reacting to the diplomatic stalemate after Munir’s statement. The May 31 market dropped 12 points in 24 hours. The April 19 market sits at 8% YES, with only one day left before resolution.
The market trades $9,914 in actual USDC daily, with a $1,419 order moving the price five points. A single large order can still shift the odds. The largest recent move was a 5-point drop in the May 31 market at 12:19 PM. The term structure shows a 70-point spread between April 19 and May 31, meaning traders expect possible developments in the coming weeks but not in the next day.
Munir’s comments point to diplomatic gridlock, but they don’t change the underlying dynamic. Trump’s firm stance on maintaining the blockade suggests a low probability of lifting it without significant Iranian concessions. Buying YES at 78¢ pays $1 if the blockade lifts by May 31, a 1.28x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe a breakthrough is imminent, which current diplomatic signals don’t support.
Watch for statements from Trump or CENTCOM hinting at a policy shift. Any announcement of new talks or easing conditions on the blockade would move these markets fast.
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