Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Best Visual Effects commentary (Updated Feb. 12, 2025): “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” won the top Visual Effects Society Award for outstanding visual effects in a photoreal feature at the 23rd Visual Effects Society Awards. Yet on Tuesday at the Beverly Hilton, the society spread the wealth, awarding three trophies—the most in the live-action feature categories—to “Dune: Part Two.”
Wes Ball’s fourth installment in the rebooted “Planet of the Apes” series was a huge financial success, but the previous three films have yet to win a visual effects prize. Could that put 20th Century Studios in line to finally take home the Oscar?
With the BAFTA Awards coming Friday, the results could strongly indicate what Oscar voters may decide as final voting is underway. Since the best picture expansion in 2009, the Oscars and BAFTA winners for visual effects have matched 10 times. By comparison, the VES winner for outstanding visual effects in a photoreal feature has only aligned with the Oscar winner seven times—despite all three previous “Planet of the Apes” films winning the VES award.
A key factor is whether a film is nominated for best picture. This year, only two visual effects nominees — “Dune: Part Two” and “Wicked” — are also best picture nominees. Historically, there was only one instance of a non-best picture nominee winning over Best Picture nominees: “Ex Machina” in 2015. In past close races, the best picture factor has been decisive, such as when “Hugo” (2011) beat “Rise of the Planet of the Apes” or “1917” (2019) edged out “Avengers: Endgame” and “The Lion King.” This history suggests “Dune: Part Two” is the likely winner.
As for “Wicked,” no film — except last year’s winner, “Godzilla Minus One” — has won the Oscar for visual effects without a BAFTA nomination, which “Wicked” did not receive.
Additionally, 20 of the past 24 visual effects Oscar winners have been nominated for production design, further strengthening “Dune: Part Two’s” case.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.
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Image Credit: ©Universal/Courtesy Everett Col
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More Information (Oscars: Visual Effects)
2024 category winner: “Godzilla Minus One” (Toho) — Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi, and Tatsuji Nojima Variety via Getty Images
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About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
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