Oscar Predictions: Adapted Screenplay — ‘Emilia Pérez’ Is Third Musical to Snag Globe Nom for Screenplay, While ‘Nickel Boys’ Continues to Ascend

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Best Adapted Screenplay Commentary (Updated Dec. 10, 2024): Jacques Audiard’s genre-defying crime musical, “Emilia Pérez,” has stormed into the season with a commanding 10 Golden Globe noms, setting a new record for the most nods ever received by a comedy or musical film. Among its noms is one for best screenplay, a distinction that has historically eluded musicals in major awards races. It’s only the third musical to receive a Golden Globe nomination for screenplay; “

The two musicals to precede it — Rob Marshall’s “Chicago” (2002) and Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land” (2016) — paved the way for films that blend music and narrative to be recognized for their scripts. Both saw significant success at the Golden Globes. “Chicago” went on to win the Oscar for best picture and secured an adapted screenplay nod, though it lost the category to “The Pianist.” Meanwhile, “La La Land” triumphed at the Globes with a seven-win sweep but ultimately fell short at the Oscars, losing in both original screenplay and best picture.

For “Emilia Pérez,” the Golden Globe recognition could begin a more extensive campaign for the screenplay category at the Oscars. In this space, musicals have historically struggled to find traction. Only one musical, Vincente Minnelli’s lavish “Gigi” (1958), has ever won the Oscar for adapted screenplay. Since the Academy Awards began in 1929, a mere 12 musicals have been nominated in the category, the most recent being “Chicago.”

Perhaps “Wicked” can join the musical love? It will need to in order to win best picture (if you believe it can).

While “Emilia Pérez” has been dominating headlines, RaMell Ross’ harrowing adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel “Nickel Boys” has quietly built momentum on the awards circuit and garnered significant recognition in the precursor awards, including major wins from the New York Film Critics Circle for Director and Cinematography and from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association for cinematography and editing.

At the Golden Globes, “Nickel Boys” received a single nom for picture (drama), a high-profile but isolated recognition. Only seven films in history have been nominated for just one Golden Globe in the top category. Of those, three failed to secure any Oscar nominations — “The Great Debaters” (2007), “La Bamba” (1987) and “The Inspector” (1962). Two of the remaining four, “In Cold Blood” (1967) and “The Professionals” (1966), did make it to the Oscars for adapted screenplay. Although none of the seven received a best picture nod.

Could “Nickel Boys” break this trend? With its devastating portrayal of institutionalized racism at a reform school in Jim Crow-era Florida, the film has already been heralded as a cinematic achievement. Critics have praised Ross’ ability to translate Whitehead’s piercing prose into a visual medium, capturing the source material’s lyrical beauty and unflinching brutality. It’s a real threat in this category.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.