Oscar Predictions 2027: Telluride Reshapes the Best Picture Race as TIFF Lines Up Its Crowd-Pleasers

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

2027 Academy Awards Predictions Commentary All Categories (Updated: Sept. 10, 2026): The presumed best picture front-runner will not screen for another three months. The other one has been playing since July. And then there’s everything in between.

“Dune: Part Three” won’t arrive until December, and Denis Villeneuve’s finale will hang over every projection between now and then. Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” opened in the summer and has not slipped an inch since. Neither felt any need to haul itself up to any of the festivals.

The movies that actually turned up in Telluride are why the race reads differently this week than it did last. Martin McDonagh’s “Wild Horse Nine,” with John Malkovich doing the loosest, meanest work of his late career, walked out of its first screening to the kind of ovation that puts him and the movie, squarely in the thick of the race. Searchlight has made this climb before, and they have their eye on the prize. Over at Focus Features, Simon Stone’s “Elsinore” handed Andrew Scott a showcase that the awards team can build a whole campaign around. A24’s “The Debut” had the biggest applause at the fest, and now TIFF will digest it and see if it can go even further.

But A24 has other stuff up its sleeves.

No documentary has ever been nominated for best picture. Not saying there haven’t been worthy entrants such as “Hoop Dreams,” “Searching for Sugar Man” and dozens of others. Across nearly a hundred years of this ceremony, the category has kept a wall between nonfiction and the top prize and that wall has never once come down. Enter Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s “You Can See Everything,” which surprised Telluride and took the town by storm. If the film holds through the fall, the 99th Academy Awards could hand a documentary feature the first pest picture nomination in Oscar history and A24 wants it.

Then there is “Wildwood,” which was just announced as the opening night film of AFI Fest and Laika is looking to make its own history.

Three animated films have ever broken through into the top category. “Beauty and the Beast.” “Up.” “Toy Story 3.” Every last one of them representing a Disney flag. Laika, the Oregon studio that has spent two decades building whole worlds one agonizing frame at a time, has never come within shouting distance of the marquee category. Travis Knight’s “Wildwood” is the film that could finally get there, and getting there would make Laika the first animation house from outside the Disney orbit to land in the category. A stop-motion fantasy, hand-posed frame by frame, could go the distance.

But first, Toronto will get its say. While Telluride is a room full of believers, TIFF is tens of thousands of strangers with a ballot and its People’s Choice Award that can prove that a movie has what it takes.

The predictions will look nothing like this by Thanksgiving, and we’re ready to keep watching the race unfold.

The Governors Awards, which will hand out honorary Oscars to Glenn Close and Ridley Scott, will take place Sunday, Nov. 15. Preliminary voting for the Oscars shortlist in 12 categories runs Dec. 7-11, with the shortlist announcement to follow Tuesday, Dec. 15. Following the close of the eligibility period on Dec. 31, 2026, nominations voting will run Jan. 11-15, 2027. The official Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, Jan. 21, 2027. The 99th Oscars will take place on Sunday, March 14, 2027 and will be hosted by Conan O’Brien. The ceremony airs live at 7 p.m. ET on ABC and in more than 200 territories worldwide from the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood.

Projected nomination leaders (films): “The Odyssey” (15); “Dune: Part Three” (12); “The Debut” and “La Bola Negra” (7); “Wild Horse Nine” and “Wildwood” (6); “Project Hail Mary” (5)

Projected nomination leaders (studios): A24 (18); Universal Pictures and Warner Bros. (15); Netflix (12); Laika and Searchlight Pictures (6); Amazon MGM Studios (5)

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)