Oman and Iran meet to discuss transit through Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire doubts: FT

7 hours ago 2

Oman and Iran met to ensure smooth transit through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling diplomatic engagement. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 sits at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.

The market reaction was muted, with the April 7 market at 1% YES, showing skepticism about immediate breakthroughs. The April 15 market sits at 6% YES, down from 8% yesterday. The April 30 market at 18% YES saw a 2-point spike yesterday, suggesting some optimism for diplomatic progress in the medium term.

The meeting signals potential de-escalation but lacks direct US or Iranian military involvement, limiting its impact. The May 31 market at 36% YES and the June 30 market at 52% YES reflect greater confidence in longer-term resolution.

USDC traded in these markets totals $430,773 over the past 24 hours, with $12,367 required to move the April 7 market 5 points, indicating low liquidity. The largest move was a 2-point spike in the April 30 market at 5:08 PM.

This meeting represents a modest diplomatic step, but without significant military de-escalation, the situation remains precarious. At 18¢, a YES share for a ceasefire by April 30 pays $1 — a 5.5x return. For that wager to pay off, you’d need to believe a diplomatic breakthrough is imminent.

Watch for any announcements from Oman or Qatar regarding further intermediary actions, or any shifts in CENTCOM’s operational stance. These could move the markets significantly.