Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Surges 12% This Week — Will Momentum Last Through Earnings?

Key Highlights

• Nvidia shares have climbed 12% across the last five trading days, hovering near $219-$220.
• SpaceX CEO Elon Musk confirmed the company will use Nvidia hardware exclusively moving forward.
• Counterpoint Research reports 92% of government-backed sovereign AI models run on Nvidia chips.
• Sovereign AI-related revenue surged more than three times year over year, exceeding $30 billion in fiscal 2026.
• Analyst Christopher Jacobson from Susquehanna highlighted Nvidia’s tendency to rally two to three weeks ahead of earnings releases.

Nvidia shares started Thursday’s session at $219.22, with premarket activity indicating a modest 0.4% increase to $220.14. The chipmaker has posted a 12% advance over the previous five trading days.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

The uptick arrives as the company prepares to release its quarterly earnings on August 26.

Nvidia’s 52-week trading range spans from $164.07 to $236.54. The company currently commands a market capitalization of $5.31 trillion alongside a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.57.

A significant catalyst behind the recent rally was Elon Musk’s announcement that SpaceX has committed to using Nvidia hardware exclusively. Such an endorsement from a prominent technology leader resonates strongly with market participants.

Government AI Infrastructure Leadership

New data from Counterpoint Research released Wednesday reveals that 92% of sovereign AI models—those developed and supported by national governments—rely on Nvidia processors for training.

The company’s sovereign AI segment generated more than triple its prior-year revenue, surpassing $30 billion during fiscal year 2026.

Marc Einstein, Director at Counterpoint Research, highlighted that Nvidia is securing multi-billion-dollar agreements across various regions as it positions itself to dominate what he characterized as the emerging AI phase, encompassing inferencing capabilities and sovereign AI infrastructure.

Pre-Earnings Pattern Analysis

Christopher Jacobson, an analyst at Susquehanna, identified a recurring pattern in Nvidia’s price action. His research note indicated that Nvidia typically experiences upward momentum during the two to three weeks preceding earnings announcements, a phenomenon observed consistently over the past eight reporting periods.

Jacobson observed that Nvidia stock remains below its peak following the previous earnings release, making the current pre-announcement period particularly significant for traders.

The company’s most recent quarterly disclosure on May 20 delivered earnings per share of $1.87, surpassing analyst projections of $1.76. Revenue reached $81.61 billion, exceeding the $78.42 billion consensus forecast.

That quarter’s revenue represented an 85.2% jump versus the comparable year-ago period. EPS for the same quarter last year stood at $0.81.

Wall Street analysts are currently projecting full-year earnings per share of $8.79 for the ongoing fiscal year.

Regarding shareholder returns, Nvidia’s board greenlit an $80 billion stock repurchase authorization in May. Additionally, the company increased its quarterly dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share, distributed on June 26.

Institutional investors control 65.27% of outstanding shares. Boreal Capital Management expanded its Nvidia holdings by 37.2% during the first quarter, with the position now representing 7.1% of its total portfolio.

Brighton Jones, Bank Pictet, Highview Capital, Hudson Value Partners, and Wealth Group Ltd. have all increased their Nvidia allocations in recent reporting periods.

The stock’s 50-day moving average stands at $205.31 while its 200-day moving average rests at $196.77, placing the current trading price above both technical benchmarks.

Nvidia maintains a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.04, complemented by a current ratio of 3.44 and a quick ratio of 2.85.

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