Update: November 11, 5:09 p.m. ET: NOAA has issued a G4 warning for a severe geomagnetic storm for November 12. This CME, associated with the X.51 solar flare, is the most energetic and fastest of the three CMEs headed toward Earth. Experts are also monitoring the sunspot cluster AR4272, whose probability of X-class solar flares has risen to 55%.
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Just this morning, our host star unleashed one of the strongest solar flares of its current 11-year cycle. This barrage of solar activity could lead to a fast-moving eruption catching up with an earlier one, sending a combined blast—a “cannibal” coronal mass ejection—toward Earth in the next couple of days.
Since last week, the Sun has been pouring out streaks of powerful solar flares, or intense bursts of electromagnetic radiation. Experts have confirmed that multiple events were X-class flares, the most intense type. But this morning’s outburst peaked at an astounding X5.1-class, around five times stronger than last week’s two X-class flares that caused radio blackouts in parts of South America. This is the strongest solar flare recorded since October 2024 and the strongest flare of 2025.
What’s more, most of these solar bursts are coming from a single sunspot cluster, Region 4274, which is now directly pointed at Earth. Over the weekend, this region released two solar flares accompanied by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), or large plasma expulsions that tamper with the Earth’s magnetic field.
NOAA’s projection for the aurora viewline for tonight and tomorrow. Credit: NOAAThese CMEs are currently headed toward Earth and will likely cause strong to minor geomagnetic storms later today and Wednesday, NOAA said in a forecast report. In the United States, northern states and lower midwest regions may see auroras in the sky, it added.
“Region 4274 continued to exhibit minor growth over the period, with little change to its enhanced magnetic complexity,” read the report. “This Region was responsible for nearly all of the flare activity during the period.”
“Cannibal” solar barrage
Not all CMEs affect Earth, as their direction depends on solar winds or flare orientation. Given the fraught activity of Region 4274, however, experts are projecting that the two storm clouds on their way to Earth may merge to become a “cannibal CME,” which “contains shock waves and enhanced magnetic fields that do a good job sparking and amplifying geomagnetic storms,” according to Tony Phillips of spaceweather.com.
NOAA forecast model showing a potential CME merger. Credit: NOAA via spaceweather.comWhen this occurred earlier this year, a severe G4-class storm struck parts of the Northern Hemisphere, causing blackouts and auroras. However, the exact timing of the merger, if one occurs, remains uncertain. It may happen before the storms reach Earth, or possibly after, Phillips added. Either way, powerful solar storms will sweep past Earth’s magnetic field over the next couple of days.
Is it done yet?
As for the record-setting solar flare from this morning, experts are still at work modeling the event. The flare did produce a CME, parts of which appear to be headed toward Earth. In an update from this morning, NOAA raised the possibility of a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm later this week.
© NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center“I think it is safe to say this will be one of the most impressive near side CMEs of the cycle (fingers crossed there are even more spectacular ones soon),” wrote geophysicist Jure Atanackov in an X post. “This is special.”
NASA M2M SWO estimate the speed of the CME at 1856 km/s – a very fast CME! The animation of the CME in Cor2 data is absolutely spectacular. Big, fast CME. Bulk headed for us. I think it is safe to say this will be one of the most impressive near side CMEs of the cycle (fingers… https://t.co/nkNhspZo9i pic.twitter.com/9dRXkiSAPS
— Jure Atanackov (@JAtanackov) November 11, 2025
As of this morning, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center projects a 35% probability for X-class flares and 75% for M-class flares from Region 4274—a sizeable increase from last week.
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