Despite a disappointing streak of Starship launches, SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk remains optimistic about using the megarocket to transport humans to Mars within the next few years. During a recent talk, the rocket billionaire remained intent on launching Starship to Mars during an upcoming window in 2026. He also awkwardly mentioned that humanity would need to move to the Red Planet in case World War III breaks out.
On Thursday, SpaceX released a video of Musk addressing employees during a company talk titled, “The Road to Making Life Multiplanetary.” The talk was originally meant to be streamed on Tuesday, the same day Starship lifted off for a less-than-ideal test flight. Musk was a no-show, leading us to wonder where he was. Then, without explanation, the company dropped the 42-minute video on its X page, though it’s not clear when Musk delivered the talk. As expected, Musk made some big promises for Starship while ignoring the rocket’s three consecutive failures.
“Progress is measured by the timeline to establishing a self-sustaining civilization on Mars,” Musk said during his talk. “Each launch is about learning more and more about what’s needed to make life multi-planetary and to improve Starship to the point where it can be taking, ultimately, hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people to Mars.”
Musk sees Mars as a vital lifeline for humanity, describing it as essential “for the long term survival of civilization.” He claims that any civilization is likely to last 10 times longer if it is multiplanetary, because “there’s always some chance that us humans could do something crazy like World War III,” he said. “Hopefully not, but it’s possible.”
Starship is at the center of Musk’s overly ambitious plan to establish human settlements on Mars. Before its most recent test flight, Starship suffered back-to-back glitches that resulted in the rocket exploding twice in a row. SpaceX stated that there were several improvements made to Starship ahead of Flight 9, but the rocket fell into an unrecoverable spin about 30 minutes after launch. SpaceX managed to push Starship further than in the previous two tests but it still failed to meet a lot of its flight goals, including the deployment of eight simulated Starlink satellites, relighting one of its engines in space, and testing the rocket’s engine during reentry.
During his talk, Musk failed to refer to Starship’s recent losses and instead boasted about clear highlights from the rocket’s launch journey thus far, including that epic booster catch on October 13, 2024. Starship, the largest rocket ever built, currently stands 397 feet (121 meters) tall, but an upcoming version of it will be even bigger. Version 3, according to Musk, will be at around 408 feet (124.4 meters). Aside from its bigger frame, Starship will also have an upgraded design that Musk hopes will make it more reliable, with an upper stage that can be refueled in Earth orbit so that it can reach more distant destinations like Mars. The vehicle will also have upgraded Raptor engines.
“The upgraded Raptors have a complete redesign of the aft end of the booster and the ship,” Musk said during a recent interview with Ars Technica. “So, because we don’t need the heat shield around the upper portion of the engine, it greatly simplifies the base of the booster and the ship. It’ll look a little, frankly, naked, especially on the booster side, because the engines will just be there, like, not with stuff around them.”
The SpaceX CEO is aiming for Starship’s Version 3 to fly by the end of this year. From there, he hopes to catch an upcoming launch window for Mars that opens at the end of 2026. “We’ll try to make that opportunity, if we get lucky,” Musk said during his talk. “I think we probably have a 50/50 chance right now.”
We’ve learned not to take Musk’s timelines too seriously, but a Starship redesign will probably be necessary to lift the rocket out of its recent slump. And until SpaceX successfully demonstrates in-orbit refueling—an absolute requirement for reaching Mars—Starship remains more fantasy than spacecraft.
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