Moderna (MRNA) Stock Drops 17% Despite Melanoma Trial Success

TLDR

• Moderna stock plunged more than 17% to $202.63 after early publication of its melanoma vaccine trial results.
• The Merck-Moderna treatment reduced melanoma recurrence or death risk by 42% and distant spread or death risk by 38%.
• Two-year recurrence-free survival reached 82.2% with the combined treatment, compared with 70% for Keytruda alone.
• Moderna and Merck will present the findings on October 24 as they continue regulatory discussions.

Moderna (MRNA) stock fell more than 17% to $202.63 on Thursday after detailed results for its melanoma vaccine surfaced earlier than expected. The decline came despite a Phase 3 trial meeting its main treatment goals alongside Merck’s Keytruda.

Moderna, Inc., MRNA

Moderna Stock Falls After Early Release

The figures briefly appeared on an oncology website before their scheduled Saturday presentation. Moderna and Merck then published the findings on Thursday. Moderna shares fell more than 25% during trading, temporarily erasing about $24 billion in market value.

The stock recovered some losses before closing but weakened again in Friday’s premarket session. Merck shares also declined following the melanoma findings. Even after Thursday’s drop, Moderna had gained approximately 587% this year.

Melanoma Trial Shows Lower Recurrence Risk

The INTerpath-001 trial enrolled 1,137 patients whose high-risk stage IIB-IV melanoma had been removed through surgery. Participants received either the personalized vaccine, called intismeran autogene, with Keytruda or a placebo with Keytruda. Researchers designed each vaccine using genetic changes found in the patient’s tumor.

After a median follow-up of 24.6 months, the combination reduced recurrence or death risk by 42%. Two-year recurrence-free survival reached 82.2%, versus 70% for Keytruda alone. The combination also cut the risk of cancer spreading to distant areas or death by 38%.

Analysts Assess Results and Safety

Severe treatment-related side effects affected 14.2% of combination patients and 13.4% of comparison patients. The companies reported no new safety concerns. In separate oncology news, Roche shares rose after FDA approval of a colon cancer treatment this week.

UBS analyst Michael Yee described the recurrence findings as solid overall but attributed the selloff to earlier stock gains. William Blair’s Myles Minter questioned whether similar benefits would appear in other cancers. Analysts also noted that the distant-spread reduction trailed expectations from earlier research, although the studies differed.

Regulatory Plans and Tokenized Trading

Separately, Moderna Tokenized bStocks (MRNAB) was quoted at $191.91, down 20.67% over 24 hours. It trades separately from Nasdaq shares. In related market news, BNB Chain recorded $25.6 billion in tokenized-stock trades during the third quarter.

Moderna and Merck plan to present the results Saturday, October 24, at a medical conference in Madrid. They are discussing the findings with regulators. Overall survival figures remain incomplete, so the trial has not yet shown a definitive survival benefit.

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