Market odds for Iranian regime change by June 30 drop to 13.5% as skepticism grows: FT

5 hours ago 5

A former CIA operative has stated that regime change in Iran is more challenging than the US anticipates. The market for the Iranian regime falling by June 30 is at 13.5% YES, down from 20% a week ago.

Traders are noting the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, consolidating power after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination. The succession appears stable, with a 1.5-point rise in odds since yesterday. The June 30 sub-market now sits at 13.5% YES, suggesting skepticism about an imminent regime collapse.

The market has $59,602 in USDC traded daily, below the face value of $439,688. It requires $195,733 to shift prices by 5 percentage points, indicating institutional-grade depth. The largest single move was a modest 1-point spike, reflecting steady but cautious trading.

While the Iranian regime faces internal pressures, its structural resilience remains intact. The CIA operative’s comments, reported by a tier-2 source, dampen expectations for a swift regime collapse. A YES share at 13.5¢ pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, a 7.4x return. To justify that bet, you’d need to believe in a significant destabilizing event within 88 days.

Watch for signals such as IRGC fractures, an unexpected Assembly of Experts meeting, or Mojtaba Khamenei’s absence from public view. These could shift the odds significantly.