Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston told an audience at the RAISE Summit in Paris earlier this month that indium phosphide, the compound semiconductor behind every laser in an AI data center, is heading into a supply squeeze worse than what we've already seen with DRAM / NAND, and that Nvidia's decision to fund Lumentum and its biggest competitor at the same time was a response to exactly that.
In his remarks, Hurlston said that telecom customers bought lasers in the hundreds, while Nvidia and the hyperscalers are asking for hundreds of millions. While Lumentum runs five indium phosphide fabs, it's still shipping more than 30% below what customers want. Nvidia's answer, in March, was to write $2 billion checks to Lumentum and Coherent, the two suppliers that, between them, make most of the world's high-speed datacom lasers, with purchase commitments and future capacity access attached to both.
"Between the two of us, I don't think we can service the demand that Nvidia and others are now putting on us to solve this resistance problem in the data center," Hurlston added.
Silicon doesn't emit light
Indium phosphide has a direct bandgap of roughly 1.34 eV, which lets it convert electrical current into photons efficiently. Silicon's bandgap is indirect, so it can guide, split, and modulate light but can't generate it. Every silicon photonics platform in production, including those of Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, and Cisco, still needs an indium phosphide laser somewhere in the package to supply the light for silicon to manipulate. Moving from pluggable transceivers to co-packaged optics changes where that laser sits and how it's mounted, but it doesn't remove it from the bill of materials.
Nvidia's marketing claims its photonics switches use four times fewer lasers than an equivalent pluggable deployment, alongside 3.5 times better power efficiency and ten times better network resiliency, all of which are vendor figures. Those savings are per port, and it's that port count that's exploding.
The high-end Spectrum-X Photonics configuration runs 512 ports at 800 Gb/s for 400 Tb/s of switching, and Quantum-X Photonics InfiniBand runs 144 ports at 800 Gb/s. Co-packaging also shifts the laser type toward high-power continuous-wave sources and external laser modules that feed multiple channels, which are harder to build than the electro-absorption modulated lasers inside a conventional pluggable. Coherent's Nvidia agreement covers that category of high-power CW lasers, external laser source modules, and fiber array units.
Capacity at Lumentum and Coherent
Lumentum posted record revenue of $808.4 million in its fiscal third quarter, up 90% year over year, with components revenue of $533 million and pump laser shipments up 80%. On the May earnings call, Hurlston told analysts the company expects its supply line to increase 50% measured from one December quarter to the next, and in the same breath said the supply-demand imbalance on EMLs had widened from the 25% to 30% given a quarter earlier to "somewhere greater than 30%," with pump lasers tighter still. A supplier growing output by half a turn per year and losing ground anyway is a clean measure of how steep the demand curve is.
Coherent's 6-inch indium phosphide line yields more than four times as many devices as its 3-inch line at less than half the cost, CEO Jim Anderson told investors on the company's fiscal Q3 call. Anderson said EMLs, CW lasers, and photodiodes are all in production on the 6-inch line with yields above the legacy 3-inch lines, and that internal capacity would double by the end of the June quarter, one quarter ahead of plan, then more than double again by the end of 2027. Coherent's revenue hit a record $1.8 billion, up 21%, with data center and communications now 75% of the total against roughly 41% a year earlier, and backlog stretching into 2028.
Logic and memory moved to 300mm wafers in the early 2000s. Indium phosphide is a brittle, expensive, small-boule material where the industry-wide upgrade currently underway is 3-inch to 6-inch, roughly the transition silicon completed in the 1980s. Lumentum's fifth fab, announced in March, is a converted Qorvo gallium arsenide plant in Greensboro, North Carolina, described as 4-inch and 6-inch compatible and ramping around 2028.
Running through China
Indium is recovered as a byproduct of zinc refining, so its output can't be scaled independently of zinc economics, no matter how much laser demand there is. The USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 put China at an estimated 760 tonnes of roughly 1,100 tonnes of global primary refined indium in 2025, about 69%, and recorded a 72% year-over-year fall in unwrought indium exports between September 2024 and September 2025 after Beijing placed the metal under export controls in February last year. The U.S. warehouse price averaged about $390 per kilogram in 2025 against $340 in 2024.
AXT's Chinese subsidiary Tongmei had to obtain Ministry of Commerce export permits, granted in June and August 2025, before it could resume shipping indium phosphide substrates out of China. The fabs Nvidia is funding sit downstream of that licensing regime, and the wafers going into them aren't made in the United States in meaningful volume.
DRAM contract prices rose 90% to 95% quarter over quarter in Q1 2026, the largest quarterly increase TrendForce has recorded, and the firm forecast a further 58% to 63% in Q2 with NAND up 70% to 75%. HBM is sold out for 2026. Hurlston is measuring his warning against a genuinely historic crunch, which makes it a strong claim rather than a throwaway one, and he runs a company whose valuation depends on the shortage persisting.
LightCounting's April 2026 market forecast puts current transceiver demand about 30% above supply, matching Lumentum's own figure, but states that the shortages should be gone by the end of 2026 and cuts expected Ethernet transceiver growth to 65% for the year after 82% in 2025 and 93% in 2024. Coherent, hitting its capacity doubling a quarter early, points the same way. The distinction from memory is that the fix here is a wafer-size transition already running in production with yields ahead of the old node, not a new fab that takes three years to build.
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