Live updates: Bitcoin rises to $84,000 as SpaceX leads markets higher

“We think a deal could require SpaceX SPCX$162.69 to pay a meaningful premium for Tesla TSLA$386.67 shares,” said RBC following last night’s earnings call chatter about a merger between the two companies.

The analysts believe Tesla holders would be “receptive” to $480 per share (about 25% above current levels), which is their sum-of-the-parts analysis of intrinsic value plus a 15% premium.

The deal gets a bit trickier from the SpaceX side, though. At $480, SpaceX is likely to own less than half of the combined company, “a dynamic that could face pushback.”

Bitcoin's next test will be $87,000, a level that could signal whether the cryptocurrency's recovery turns into a broader rally, according to Jasper De Maere, OTC trader at Wintermute.

With bitcoin back above $84,000, De Maere said the market looks constructive, though gains remain tied to a rebound in equities rather than a fresh crypto catalyst.

Altcoins could see further gains if risk appetite holds up. Roughly 80% of the top 500 cryptocurrencies were in the green over the past 24 hours, with Zcash, memecoins and DeFi tokens among the strongest performers.

For now, De Maere sees a recovery rather than a sustained rally.

“A great example of how Wall Street discounts what Elon says,” wrote longtime tech analyst Gene Munster. Analysts, he said, just take Musk’s low-end and cut another 50% from that.

On the SpaceX SPCX$162.69 earnings call last night, noted Munster, Musk said SPCX should have annual recurring revenue of $500 billion - $1 trillion by the end of next year.

The Street, said Munster, previously expected fourth-quarter 2027 revenue to be $31 billion, and, those analysts that have already adjusted based on last night’s results have raised estimates to $70 billion. This, despite Musk saying it’s going to be far higher than that.

“[SPCX] should be 30% plus today.”

Shares aren’t up 30%, but they’re not doing too badly, rising 9.5%.

Big gains for SpaceX, up 10%, and Tesla, up 4%, are helping the Nasdaq to 0.7% advance in the first 30 minutes of trading on Wednesday.

A 3% decline for Netflix, post-earnings, and a 2% drop for Google are keeping the index from a larger move.

U.S. Treasury bond yields are lower by about 3 basis points across the board even as yields rise in Europe.

Bitcoin is slightly adding to gains, now up 2.5% in the past 24 hours to $83,750.

Anthony Pompliano’s Silvia (SVIA) last night disclosed the coming departures for COO Megan Pacchia, CFO Renae Cormier, and Chief Legal Officer Kyle Wood.

Caroline Hennigar will be the new COO, and Catalina Abbey will be the interim CFO.

The departures come alongside the announcement of a company-wide cost-cutting initiative expected to generate more than $10 million in annual savings.

Originally formed as ProCap Financial (BRR) amid the bitcoin treasury company frenzy of 2025, the company this year switched names (to Silvia) and its business focus to agnetic finance.

Silvia this year has been selling bitcoin and buying back stock. BTC holdings at last check were below 5,000 coins after having peaked at nearly 5,500 in March.

Ken Griffin, CEO of Citadel, says AI is “almost certainly” in a bubble, with companies struggling to translate heavy spending into productivity gains and profits. However, he expects the technology to drive entrepreneurship and create lasting market leaders.

While, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns that slowing data center construction could fuel inflation by keeping computing costs high and threaten economic growth. Fink argues faster expansion would lower costs as AI demand accelerates, while warning that rising Treasury yields reflect mounting concerns over the US fiscal deficit.

After plunging 32% following its IPO Tuesday — and taking U.S. peers down along with it — South Korean data center player Elice surged 30% overnight (the daily limit), though still remaining below its IPO price.

South Korea’s Kospi gained 3.3%.

Helping things were strong preliminary results from the U.S.’s Super Micro Computer (SMCI), which is higher by 12% pre-market. The company sees third-quarter sales of $18.5 billion - $19.5 billion, far ahead of estimates for $15 billion.

Strong results from SpaceX, as well as possible merger plans with Tesla, are also lifting animal spirits.

Among the neoclouds bouncing pre-market: CoreWeave (CRWV) +2.9%, IREN IREN$27.67 +4%, Hut 8 HUT$71.04 +4.4%, TeraWulf WULF$12.68 +5%.

Chatter about a possible merger between Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Tesla is lifting U.S. stock index futures (Nasdaq 100 +0.6%), and Europe’s Stoxx 50 is higher by 0.9%. Bitcoin is off yesterday’s lows, rising to $83,400.

France’s stressed government bond market, though, is showing more cracks. The 10-year OAT yield rose above 5% earlier for the first time since 2022. It’s currently edged back to 4.995%, up nearly 8 basis points on the day.

The German 10-year Bund yield is higher by just 2.8 basis points, raising the Bund/OAT spread to 158 basis points, the highest since the EU debt crisis of 2011.

“Is France spinning out of control?,” went an FT opinion piece yesterday, written by Le Monde’s Sylvie Kaufmann.

“Decades of uncontrolled public spending — France has not had a balanced budget since 1974 — and years of ‘whatever it takes’ after the pandemic have pushed the public deficit to 5.4% of GDP this year,” wrote Kaufman. “The national debt has reached 119%, its highest level since 1946, and keeps ballooning.”

Bitcoin is hanging just above $82,500 on Wednesday, the level XS.com’s Simon-Peter Massabni calls its most important support, as stock futures climbed on SpaceX’s blowout results and oil pushed back above $110.

Bitcoin’s fate is tied to tech again. It fell in lockstep with the Nasdaq last week after the hot U.S. inflation report and a selloff in AI and chip stocks, and Massabni, XS.com’s head of business development, said that link is getting stronger.

“In the short term, this development challenges the notion that Bitcoin can consistently serve as an independent safe haven from traditional market volatility,” he said.

A “decisive and sustained break” below $82,500 could hand control to sellers and expose bitcoin to a drop toward $70,000, Massabni said. That’s the downside case laid out by market maker Wintermute, and it would mean a further 15% slide from here.

Tech gave bitcoin some cover on Wednesday.

Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4% and S&P 500 futures 0.2%. SpaceX jumped 9% before the open after its AI and satellite internet businesses drove earnings well above forecasts, and a report that Anthropic may spend $750 billion on computing power eased worries about the AI spending boom.

Brent topped $110 a barrel on attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, and Treasury yields edged higher. Meta and Tesla report later Wednesday.

A move back above $84,000 would take the $70,000 scenario off the table.