4 hours ago
4
Kim Jong Un publicly endorsed North Korean troops’ decisions to kill themselves rather than be captured in Ukraine, a signal of deepened commitment to Russia’s war effort. The ceasefire-by-April-30 market sits at 0.2% YES, down from 1% a week ago.
Kim’s comments suggest North Korea will maintain its military support for Russia. The April 30 market reflects this, with odds effectively at zero. The May 31 market is at 3.6% YES, so traders aren’t expecting peace next month either. The 3-point spread from April to May implies no one sees an immediate resolution.
Trading volume is modest: $3,737 in USDC over the last 24 hours across these markets. The largest single move was a 50-point spike to 50% on the April 30 contract, which quickly retracted, a sign of a thin market prone to distortion. It takes just $875 to move the April 30 market 5 points.
Kim’s praise for these acts of loyalty reinforces North Korea’s commitment to Russia and makes a ceasefire less likely. Buying YES at 0.2¢ would pay $1 if a ceasefire is reached by April 30. The market prices the conflict as entrenched, and any movement would require a major diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch for official statements from the U.S. State Department or shifts in military strategy from Ukraine or Russia. Changes in either area could move these contracts.
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