Kevin Hassett says AI’s economic payoff is bigger than the data shows

The White House’s top economic adviser thinks the official numbers are missing something, and that something is artificial intelligence.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett argues that AI’s economic benefits may be larger than current statistics capture. He is betting that hidden productivity can help the US grow its way out of a debt problem that keeps getting heavier.

Speaking to the Economic Club of New York on September 28, 2026, Hassett laid out an outlook that sits well above most forecasts. His case leans on a historical comparison: the early internet era, when gains from better computing were hard to see in government data.

The 4% pitch

Hassett projected a baseline GDP growth rate of around 4%, assuming no external shocks. That beats the administration’s own 3% target.

It also clears private-sector forecasts by a wide margin. Those estimates hover around 2%, roughly half of what Hassett sees.

His evidence centers on companies that have adopted AI. According to Hassett, those firms are seeing significant increases in sales, employment, and wages compared with businesses that have not.

That last point matters. The dominant public fear about AI is that it eliminates jobs. Hassett’s framing flips the script: in his telling, adopters are hiring more and paying more, because the technology makes each worker more productive.

Investment is the other leg of the stool. One projection puts US AI-related investment from 2025 to 2032 at $10.3 trillion, an average of 3.63% of GDP annually. Hassett pointed to capital spending in areas such as data centers and semiconductors as a contributor to the administration’s fiscal goals.

Debt, interest, and the workforce math

The optimism lands against an uncomfortable backdrop. National debt now exceeds $40 trillion, with approximately $15 trillion of it held externally.

The administration’s stated aim is to bring the deficit-to-GDP ratio down to 3% by the end of President Trump’s term. That pairs with its target of 3% sustainable GDP growth.

Hassett sees two levers beyond AI-driven growth. The first is shrinking the federal workforce, which he says can generate budget savings. The second is the private investment wave in AI infrastructure, which could lift output and, with it, tax receipts.

He did include a caveat. Hassett acknowledged that external “force majeure” factors could knock the forecasts off course.

There are also headwinds that are not sudden shocks. Labor force growth appears to be slowing, and economists generally project more conservative growth paths than the White House does.

Background: a familiar argument with a new engine

Hassett’s message has been consistent. He has repeatedly framed AI as a driver of job creation and long-term economic resilience rather than a threat to employment.

He has also signaled a preference for private-sector solutions over strict regulation when it comes to managing AI-related risks.

What this means

For investors, the clearest signal is policy direction. A senior economic official publicly tying the deficit outlook to AI investment suggests continued support for data centers, semiconductors, and related infrastructure.

The productivity-measurement argument cuts both ways. It is genuinely plausible that statistics lag real gains; the internet era is a fair precedent. But an argument that the benefits are real yet not visible in the data is also difficult to disprove in the short term.

If AI-adopting firms keep adding jobs and raising wages, Hassett’s case strengthens considerably. If the gains instead concentrate in profits while hiring stalls, the political and fiscal math gets harder, especially alongside federal workforce reductions.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Diego Almada Lopez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.