Spring officially begins today with the vernal equinox, but the western U.S. is already enduring summerlike temperatures. Numerous cities from the Pacific Coast to the Great Plains are experiencing all-time-record March warmth as an exceptionally early heat wave bakes the region.
Snowpack across the West was already at record-low or near-record-low levels when a heat-trapping ridge formed over the region this week. This winter has been defined by one of the worst snow droughts in decades, and with the arrival of these well-above-average temperatures, what little snowpack remains is taking a nosedive.
“I’m extremely concerned about what might be the earliest melt-out of an already poor snowpack we’ve ever observed in most—if not the vast majority—of the American West this year,” Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, told Gizmodo. He said he would be “pretty surprised” if snowpack levels by April 1 were not the worst ever observed on that date—by a considerable margin.
This situation, combined with a major Pacific marine heat wave, is likely to trigger an early and severe drought and wildfire season, according to Swain. To make matters worse, climate models indicate a “super” El Niño may be forming, which could reinforce above-average Pacific Ocean temperatures and prolong hot, dry conditions across the West.
Well, if yesterday's map was ridiculous, I'm running out of superlatives to characterize today's. Countless locations from Pacific Coast to Great Plains are currently experiencing all-time record March warmth, w/ some locations approaching/exceeding April (or even May) records. pic.twitter.com/Jv91z723DR
— Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) March 19, 2026
The dangers of record-low snowpack
A healthy spring snowpack is critical for reducing drought and wildfire risk in the West, as high-elevation snowmelt is the region’s primary source of fresh water. When mountain snowpack melts early and rapidly—as it is right now—water levels in rivers and reservoirs plummet, the landscape dries out, and severe drought and wildfire conditions arrive sooner.
“Snowpack is taking a nosedive from already near-record-low levels,” Swain explained. “We started off with what was one of the worst snow seasons on record across a majority—not just some parts—but really most of the West, with some exceptions. And from that near-record-low point, things are dramatically getting worse.”
Even before the onset of the heat wave, snow drought conditions were worsening across nearly every major river basin in the West, according to Drought.gov. The vital Colorado River Basin, which is experiencing a historic, extended drought, reported record-low snow water equivalent on March 12. By April 1, Swain believes many lower-elevation basins are going to be completely melted out—with no snow at all.
Early season #HeatDome persists over the western U.S., expanding east this weekend. Scores of daily record high temperatures are expected through next week with some additional monthly records for March through this weekend. Here are the updated Key Messages for this #HeatWave pic.twitter.com/pLy0USmbvS
— NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) March 19, 2026
“This is kind of an unprecedented situation,” he said. As the heat wave persists and expands into the central U.S. through the weekend, it will continue to drive early, rapid snowmelt.
“There’s no indication, really, of much relief,” Swain added. “Hopefully by the time we get to early April, there might be some precipitation returning to some regions, but we’re still looking at above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation once this heat wave ends.”
Based on current and forecasted conditions, he expects wildfire season to begin early and strike hard in the Four Corners region. Wildfires will likely then spread across the forested areas of the West—a shift from recent years, which did not see large, smoke-producing fires in the interior West.
“I think that will be very different this year. This will be, unfortunately, a year where there’s likely to be a lot of smoke coming out of the West and blowing to the East,” Swain said.
The heat is here to stay
The Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook for June through August shows a high likelihood of above-normal temperatures across the West.
This long-range outlook is subject to change, but several factors may contribute to an elevated risk of extreme heat and drought in the West this summer. Firstly, a stubborn and intense marine heat wave along the Pacific coast, which is currently helping an atmospheric ridge produce record-breaking heat across the region, Swain explained.
What does a #HeatDome look like on satellite?
This water vapor imagery from @NOAA's #GOESWest (#GOES18) 🛰️ shows you!
Learn more about the historic March heatwave baking the western U.S. in our #SatelliteSnapshot:https://t.co/MNVDvVh1fp pic.twitter.com/8fGnoUmCzx
— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) March 19, 2026
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects the marine heat wave to persist at least through May. If a strong El Niño develops as currently predicted, it could reinforce above-average Pacific sea surface temperatures and prolong hot, dry conditions across the West, according to Swain.
On top of all this, climate change is raising baseline temperatures. Even without the influence of El Niño or marine heat waves, this underlying long-term warming trend is raising the likelihood of extreme heat events and making the West more vulnerable to drought and wildfire, Swain explained.
“This is not looking great for the western U.S. right now,” he said. There’s a good chance the region could face one of its earliest, most intense drought and wildfire seasons on record this year. As climate change continues to push the global average temperature higher, summer extremes are becoming the new normal.
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