3 hours ago
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Pro-government rallies took place in Tehran amid ongoing US-Israel-Iran tensions. The odds for the Iranian regime falling by June 30 are now at 7.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday.
The market for Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 has also shifted slightly, sitting at 5.5% YES, down from 6% a day ago. The term structure shows a gap between June 30 at 5.5% and December 31 at 14.5%, suggesting traders expect any catalyst for Pahlavi’s return to come later in the year.
Meanwhile, the fall of the Iranian regime by May 31 is at 3.5% YES. The drop in odds across all three markets suggests traders read the pro-government rallies as a sign of regime stability.
The volume tells its own story. The regime fall market trades about $35,587 in actual USDC daily, and it takes $16,830 to move the odds 5 points. That’s a relatively thick book where real capital is needed to shift sentiment. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a one-point spike, pointing to a lack of heavy directional conviction.
The rallies have a strategic dimension. By displaying domestic unity, the regime counters narratives of internal dissent. At 7.5¢, a YES share on the regime’s fall by June 30 pays $1 if it happens, a potential 13.3x return. For that bet to make sense, a trader would need to believe in a rapid shift in internal dynamics, which the current rallies make less likely.
Keep an eye on any IRGC movements or public appearances by Mojtaba Khamenei. A shift in the internal military structure or a public declaration from Khamenei could move these odds quickly.
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