Iran escalates military actions, reducing US-Iran ceasefire odds to 1% by April 7

by Estefano Gomez · Just now ago

Iran has intensified its military actions with a significant missile strike across the Middle East, reducing the likelihood of a US-Iran ceasefire. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to 1% YES, down from 12% last week.

Market sentiment is negative across all related markets. The April 7 market is nearly inactive at 1% YES with four days remaining. The April 15 market is also low at 6% YES. The May 31 market has seen a notable drop from 52% to 38% in a week, indicating reduced optimism for a resolution soon.

Trading activity is high, with the combined face value across markets at $3.59M and $438K in actual USDC traded. The April 30 market experienced a 2-point drop at 10:44 AM, reflecting a shift in trader expectations. With $51K needed to move this market 5 points, it shows institutional interest.

This escalation marks a significant development. As Iran increases its military actions, the chance for a quick ceasefire fades. At 19.5¢, a YES share for April 30 pays $1 if successful, but it requires belief in a diplomatic breakthrough within 27 days.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM and NATO allies’ reactions. Any change in US military posture could impact market dynamics further.

Markets Impacted

• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.4% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 19.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 38.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 55.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 70.5% YES

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