3 hours ago
5
Iran’s Defense Ministry Spokesman reiterated Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing tensions. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 is at 15.5% YES, down from 20% yesterday.
The statement signals no imminent resolution to the blockade, keeping odds low for a return to normal shipping traffic. The May 15 market has dropped as traders grow more skeptical about near-term de-escalation. With 21 days to the resolution date, the market is thin: $4,658 moves the price 5 points.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices reaching an all-time high by April 30 trades at 1.1% YES. The short timeframe until April 30 limits the impact of Iran’s latest statement on this market, even given the potential for supply disruptions through Hormuz.
A YES share at 15.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 6.5x return. For this bet to pay off, traders would need to see credible de-escalation signs, such as US-Iran peace talks resuming or significant US naval operations clearing the strait.
Watch for CENTCOM updates or Iranian diplomatic moves. Any shift in operational language from the US or a new diplomatic initiative could move these odds quickly.
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