Indian refiners cut Russian crude purchases as Ukrainian attacks disrupt flows

Ukraine’s escalating drone campaign against Russian oil infrastructure is disrupting crude flows to India, Moscow’s single largest customer.

Indian refiners have been scaling back purchases of Russian crude as attacks on key export terminals and refineries create persistent supply bottlenecks. The disruptions center on the Novorossiysk terminal, which handled roughly 840,000 barrels per day destined for Indian buyers before the strikes intensified.

A volatile import picture

India’s imports from Russia dropped to approximately 1.14 to 1.24 million barrels per day in December 2025, driven largely by tighter sanctions on major Russian producers like Rosneft and Lukoil. But the picture shifted dramatically by mid-2026, when imports surged to a record average of roughly 2.6 million barrels per day in June, constituting over half of India’s total oil imports.

The attacks have reportedly knocked out up to 40% of Russian refining capacity during peak strike periods in 2026. The damage to export terminals and logistics networks means that crude often can’t get out the door efficiently.

Russia has found itself in the unusual position of importing gasoline from Indian traders. Moscow ships raw crude to India at a discount, India refines it, and some of that refined product circles back to Russia because Russian refineries can’t meet domestic demand.

State vs. private: two different playbooks

State-run giants like Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited have maintained relatively stable import flows by sourcing from compliant channels. Their government backing gives them more political cover and less sensitivity to sanctions risk.

Reliance Industries, India’s largest private refiner, has intermittently reduced its Russian crude purchases, particularly during periods of heightened sanctions enforcement. In the immediate aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russian Urals crude traded at deep discounts to international benchmarks, sometimes $20 or more below Brent. By 2026, some periods still offer meaningful discounts while others have seen margins tighten to the point where Russian crude trades at premiums, depending on logistics costs and geopolitical risk pricing.

Major Indian buyers in the current landscape include IOC, Nayara Energy, and BPCL, with Reliance occupying a more cautious, on-again-off-again role.

Global supply pressures compound the problem

India imports over 80% of its crude oil needs, making it one of the most exposed major economies to supply disruptions. Tensions in the Middle East are threatening chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, meaning both Russian supply routes and Middle Eastern corridors could face simultaneous disruptions.

Tanker rates on routes from Russia’s Baltic and Black Sea ports to India have already reflected the uncertainty, with periodic spikes during intensified Ukrainian strikes. The pricing of Russian Urals crude relative to Brent remains volatile as Ukrainian attacks continue to disrupt the logistics chain.

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