India’s Russian oil imports fall 17% in August, expected to drop further in September

India’s appetite for Russian crude oil took a notable step back in August, with imports falling to roughly 2.1 million barrels per day from the near-record 2.8 million barrels per day logged in June and July. That’s a decline of approximately 17-26%, depending on how you slice the data, according to maritime analytics firm Kpler.

The drop matters because India has been Russia’s most reliable customer since Western buyers started pulling back. Even with August’s decline, Russia still accounted for 40-45% of India’s total crude imports, comfortably holding its position as the country’s top oil supplier.

What’s driving the pullback

Three forces converged to bring volumes down. First, several Indian refineries entered scheduled maintenance windows, which temporarily reduced demand for incoming crude cargoes. Second, Ukraine-related attacks on infrastructure, particularly around Black Sea export routes, have constrained the flow of barrels available for shipment. Third, Chinese buyers have become more aggressive in competing for the same discounted Russian crude that Indian refiners have grown accustomed to snapping up.

The UAE stepped in as a partial substitute, supplying approximately 610-620 thousand barrels per day. Venezuelan volumes also ticked higher as Indian refiners started casting a wider net for their procurement.

September looks even softer

Preliminary shipping data points to a further decline in September, with Russian crude imports to India projected to slide to about 1.9 million barrels per day. If that number holds, it would represent a roughly 32% drop from the summer highs.

Analysts tracking the trend view this as a market normalization rather than a structural divorce between Indian buyers and Russian sellers. The expectation is that flows will eventually stabilize somewhere in the range of 2.0-2.5 million barrels per day.

The tariff wildcard

Indian refiners are reportedly preparing for the possibility of 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil imposed by the US government. Indian refiners have been ramping up spot-market purchases as a hedge, giving themselves flexibility to pivot quickly if the policy landscape shifts.

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