Illicit crypto volumes likely $51B in 2024, but overall share falls: Chainalysis

Illicit crypto volumes may have reached as much as $51 billion in 2024, according to estimates from Chainalysis, but the share of illicit crypto use compared to the entire market has fallen to the lowest level in three years.

Last year saw nearly $41 billion worth of illicit crypto volume, but that could rise another $10 billion given historical trends and as more illicit addresses are identified, the blockchain analytics firm said in a Jan. 15 blog post.

“2024 was likely a record year for inflows to illicit actors as these figures are lower-bound estimates based on inflows to the illicit addresses we’ve identified up to today,” Chainalysis wrote. 

“A year from now, these totals will be higher as we identify more illicit addresses and incorporate their historic activity into our estimates,” it said.

Illicit crypto volumes in 2024 could be near the peak volumes of 2022 amid increased use by criminal organizations. Source: Chainalysis 

The crypto market had a comeback in 2024 after a lull that started in the second half of 2022, with US exchange-traded funds and Donald Trump’s election helping to propel the market to a peak value of over $3.9 trillion in mid-December.

Despite a rise in crypto use, the share of illicit crypto volume in the market last year fell to 0.14% compared to 0.61% in 2023 — the lowest level since 2021, which was 0.12%.

The share of illicit crypto volumes in 2024 fell to the lowest level since 2021. Source: Chainalysis 

“Similarly, we expect this share to rise over time,” Chainalysis said. “Although historically these rates consistently remain below 1%.”

Related: Largest ‘illicit online marketplace’ has grown 51% in 6 months: Elliptic 

The company said that transnational organized crime groups are increasingly using crypto to facilitate traditional crime, such as money laundering along with drug, human and wildlife trafficking.

Nearly $11 billion of the total $40.9 billion of illicit crypto volume last year was received by wallets involved in “hacking, extortion, trafficking, or scams” along with those selling the services needed to commit such crimes, Chainalysis said.

Stablecoins continued to be the most popular crypto of choice for moving illicit funds, accounting for nearly two-thirds of illicit volumes, but Chainalysis noted that stablecoins also account for the majority of broader crypto volume, at around 77%.

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