How low can the Bitcoin price go?

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Bitcoin (BTC) price has declined by more than 11% over the last four days after rallying to all-time highs above $108,360 on Dec. 17.

Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets

This drop has led to questions on whether this level is the local top for BTC price and, if so, how low can Bitcoin go over the next few days.

December 2023 Bitcoin fractal hints at $88,000

Between December 2023 and January 2024, the BTC/USD trading pair exhibited a rounded accumulation pattern, consolidating within a rectangular range ($39,000–$46,000).

After a brief correction following a local high, Bitcoin broke out of the range and rallied sharply to $66,000 by March 2024.

The current pattern demonstrates similar price action, with Bitcoin consolidating between $88,000 and $102,000. As of Dec. 20, BTC price could be undergoing a correction toward the channel’s lower boundary zone defined by the $88,000–$90,000 range.

If history repeats, Bitcoin may initially dip toward $88,000 in December, only to rebound toward the $102,000 resistance and beyond thereafter.

Popular trader Follis says $120,000 is the breakout target if this happens.

Will Bitcoin copy the 30% crash in November ’21?

However, a Bitcoin fractal on a weekly timeframe indicates that a broader price correction could be in play. BTC’s price now exhibits signs of bearish divergence, reminiscent of its 2021 market top.

The divergence is highlighted by the relative strength index (RSI) forming lower highs despite BTC/USD reaching higher highs, signaling weakening bullish momentum and a potential price correction ahead.

The 2021 bearish divergence preceded a significant drop from Bitcoin’s then-all-time high near $69,000, with the price eventually bottoming near $15,000 in late 2022.

A similar divergence appears now as BTC failed to maintain its position above $100,000.

Thus, on longer time frames, the key support to watch lies at the 50-week EMA, which will be around $66,600 by January 2025. If that fails to hold, the next support is at $57,000, which is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.

BTC price eye local bottom around $97K

If Bitcoin successfully breaks out from the ascending triangle support near $97,000 visible in the chart, it could mean the cryptocurrency is already bottoming out.

The triangle’s horizontal resistance near $102,000 and ascending trendline support around $97,000 indicate buyers are maintaining higher lows, a sign of underlying strength. If BTC bounces from this support, it could set the stage for a breakout above $102,000.

A confirmed breakout from the triangle projects an upside target near $114,650, measured by adding the triangle’s height (~$12,000) to the breakout level. Such a move would invalidate the immediate bearish divergence narrative and reassert bullish momentum.

However, failure to hold support would reinforce the bearish divergences and open the door for a deeper correction below $90,000 toward the aforementioned levels.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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