Gemini expands prediction markets ahead of 2026 US midterm elections

Gemini’s predictions arm just got a political makeover. The crypto exchange has rolled out a Politics Hub offering real-time updates on the full slate of 2026 US midterm races, from Senate showdowns to gubernatorial contests and House battles across the country.

The move positions Gemini squarely in a fight with Polymarket, Kalshi, and other prediction platforms that have been racing to become the go-to destination for election-related trading as November approaches.

From prediction markets to political war room

Gemini Predictions launched in December 2025 after the exchange secured a CFTC Designated Contract Market license, a regulatory credential that allows it to offer real-money contracts on event outcomes within a legally sanctioned framework.

The platform already hosted categories spanning midterms, congressional races, presidential contests, and local politics. The new Politics Hub appears to consolidate and expand that offering into a centralized destination with live race tracking.

Active markets on the platform have included questions like “Will crypto market structure legislation become law?” with trading volumes reaching into the tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Senate, House, and governor races are now all fair game within the hub, covering the full spectrum of competitive contests that will shape Congress and statehouses heading into the second half of the decade.

A crowded field of competitors

Gemini is far from alone in recognizing that elections are catnip for prediction market traders. Polymarket, which became a cultural phenomenon during the 2024 presidential cycle, has been building out its own midterm coverage. Kalshi, the other CFTC-regulated prediction market, has similarly launched dedicated hubs focused on 2026 races with real-time results.

Polymarket operates in a regulatory gray zone for US users, having previously settled with the CFTC and restricted American access. Kalshi holds its own CFTC designation and has fought public legal battles to expand the scope of contracts it can list. Gemini’s CFTC license puts it in the same regulated category as Kalshi.

Meanwhile, Google’s entirely separate Gemini AI (same name, zero affiliation) has been integrating official voting data across its platforms for the 2026 cycle, delivering polling locations, registration deadlines, and real-time Associated Press results.

Why midterm prediction markets matter

Midterm elections have historically been underserved by prediction markets compared to presidential races. The 2024 cycle proved that political betting could attract serious volume and mainstream attention, but most of that energy concentrated on the White House contest.

The composition of Congress after November will determine the trajectory of crypto regulation, tax policy, and a dozen other issues that directly affect digital asset markets. Markets pricing in the probability of specific legislative outcomes, like crypto market structure bills becoming law, create a real-time sentiment gauge that traditional polling can’t replicate.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.