FRIDAY MIDDAY: Lionsgate is looking at its second No. 1 opening of 2025 with the Mel Gibson directed, Mark Wahlberg starring, Flight Risk with $4M to $4.5M today, and an opening that’s plus or minus $11M. Remember, it’s a big NFL weekend, so hopefully that doesn’t side tackle the projections we’re seeing here. The movie cost in the mid $20M with Lionsgate funding two-thirds of that with foreign sales. P&A is around mid $20M as well. Flight Risk is booked at 3,161 theaters.
In second is the sixth weekend of Disney’s Mufasa at 3,420 sites with a $1.65M Friday and $7.4M 3-day, -39% for a running total of $219.7M.
Third belongs to Sony’s second frame of its R-rated SZE and Keke Palmer comedy, One of Them Days, at 2,675 theaters with $2.1M Friday and $7M, -41%, and a ten-day by Sunday EOD with $24.3M.
Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 at 3,097 theaters is seeing a sixth Friday of $950K, 3-day of $4.4M, -49%, and running cume of $225M.
Fifth there’s a fight between NEON‘s Steven Soderbergh directed Presence and Universal’s Wolf Man for around $3M. Presence is looking at around $1.4M today at 1,730 locations whereas as the Blumhouse horror film is defanging at -72% for a running cume by Sunday of $17.4M.
Angel Studios’ Brave the Dark 2,230 sites is seeing around $1M today and a $2.4M opening.
FRIDAY AM: Lionsgate’s release of Mel Gibson’s Flight Risk starring Mark Wahlberg made in $950,000 in previews Thursday night. The last time Gibson directed was nine years ago, for the two-time Oscar-winning World War II movie Hacksaw Ridge, also from Lionsgate. It’s not clear yet whether Flight Risk will win the weekend — tracking is saying $9M-$11M — but if it does, it will rep the second No. 1 finish this month for Lionsgate joining Den of Thieves 2: Pantera, a feat the studio hasn’t pulled off since November 2023’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes.
Flight Risk is booked at 3,100 theaters, of which 660 are Premium Large Format screens and 273 Motion seat screens (4DX, DBOX, MX4D). Reviews for Flight Risk are 25% on Rotten Tomatoes; Den of Thieves 2 stood at 60% with critics on RT, and that landed Lionsgate a No. 1 win with $15M.
Tracking service Quorum spots some of the gas leaking on Flight Risk: Unaided awareness has stalled at 4%, which is never a good sign in a pic’s final week, with interest slipping from 55% to 51%. Flight Risk was 3 stars with Screen Engine/Comscore PostTrak audiences last night at 72% positive. Men at 58% and an overall audience at 80% over 25 showed up.
Headwinds Flight Risk will fly into this weekend include two NFL conference championship games. If Flight Risk nose-dives, it’s at the paws of Disney’s Mufasa; The Lion King, which is heading into its sixth weekend with an eye at $8M-$9M. Mufasa won its fifth week with $18M (-4%) and has a running cume of $212.3M. The added bonus for Mufasa: It’s not on PVOD, and it’s purely theatrical. Exhibitors are rewarding Disney with those window terms this weekend with solid screen holds.
Neon’s drone-shot ghost thriller Presence from Steven Soderbergh, which it took the world on a year ago after the pic’s Sundance premiere, is eyeing a $2M-$3M opening at 1,750 theaters. Previews were $385K. In its pure Thursday night previews alone, as a comp, Mubi’s The Substance in September did $327K before opening to $3.2M. Presence is 89% certified fresh with critics, and 2 stars with last night’s PostTrak audience, who were 61% men, 73% over the age of 25.
Neon beat out 10 other bidders at the festival for Presence a year ago, the deal at the time coming 35 years after Soderbergh’s $1 million Sundance deal for his career splash sex, lies, & videotape and subsequent Palme d’Or win at Cannes. In Presence, a family moves into a suburban house and becomes convinced they are not alone. A supernatural force has infiltrated the house and takes a specific interest in the couple’s daughter. Lucy Liu stars with Chris Sullivan, Callina Liang, Julia Fox, Eddy Maday and West Mulholland.
Angel Studios has the Damian Harris-directed, Jared Harris-starring Brave the Dark, which also looks to do in the single digits at 2,200 sites. Previews were $200K last night, per sources. PostTrak exits are 4 1/2 stars with a 62% definite recommend for the turnout, which leaned 51% female and 63% over 45 turnout. Mad Men‘s Harris plays Mr. Deen, who discovers one of his students, Nate, has been living out of his car and thrown into jail. Mr. Deen decides to bail him out, determined to curb Nate’s self-destructive behavior, but quickly discovers a host of dark secrets that are slowly tearing Nate apart. What started as a good deed becomes a desperate fight to save Nate from his own demons.
Second for the week was Sony’s R-rated Keke Palmer-SZE comedy One of Them Days with $17M after a $938K Thursday, -6% from Wednesday. The movie could ease around 40% in its second weekend. Third for the week was Universal/Blumhouse’s Wolf Man, which did not delight with $14.4M in week one at 3,354 sites. Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was fourth with $12.7M (-11%), good for a running total of $220.5M; the pic is currently on digital PVOD. Fifth for the week is Den of Thieves 2 with $9.2M (-53%) at 3,008 sites and a running total of $28.8M.
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