Final Oscar Predictions: Original Screenplay — Ryan Coogler Set to Become the Second Black Winner in the Category With ‘Sinners’

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Oscars Best Original Screenplay Commentary (Updated March 12, 2026): Ryan Coogler can’t stop breaking records.

“Sinners” marks the sixth film with a Black writer to be nominated for original screenplay, and if he wins, he’ll be the second after Jordan Peele for “Get Out” (2017), interestingly also a horror movie. When it comes to other parts of his stellar year, he is only the third Black person nominated in the same year for producing, directing and screenwriting, following in the footsteps of Jordan Peele (“Get Out”) and Spike Lee (“BlacKkKlansman”). He’s the seventh Black director to receive an Oscar nom after John Singleton (“Boyz n the Hood”), Lee Daniels (“Precious”), Steve McQueen (“12 Years a Slave”), Barry Jenkins (“Moonlight”), Peele and Lee.

The two screenplay categories seem to be the sure-fire ways to ensure both Coogler, and his adapted screenplay counterpart Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”), both walk out of the Dolby Theatre with at least one Oscar in their hands.

Final predictions are below. Each category will be updated throughout the week leading up to the 98th Oscars, set for Sunday, March 15, and hosted by Conan O’Brien.