Fed likely to maintain rates at September meeting, says analyst Gude

Ella Gude, a prominent analyst, has expressed her expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rates in the near term. This aligns with the prevailing view among economists that the central bank is in a pause phase rather than considering a rate hike. The Federal Reserve’s current target range for the federal funds rate is between 3.50% and 3.75%, with recent projections indicating a 3.8% median year-end policy rate. Markets appear to interpret Gude’s statement as supportive of the sentiment that a rate hike by the Fed is unlikely in the upcoming September meeting.

Key Takeaways

• Markets appear to interpret Ella Gude’s expectation as supportive of the Fed maintaining current rates, consistent with a pause.
• Pricing suggests a decreased likelihood of a rate hike by the September 2026 meeting, with a 23.5% YES probability.
• Gude’s view aligns with the broader consensus of economists expecting steady rates through the rest of 2026.

What to Watch

The focus will now shift to upcoming economic data releases and any statements from Federal Reserve officials that may influence market perceptions. Key indicators to monitor include inflation reports, employment data, and any geopolitical developments that could impact economic conditions. The September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be crucial in confirming or challenging the current market expectations regarding interest rates. Market participants will closely watch for any shifts in the Fed’s language or projections that could suggest a deviation from the anticipated pause in rate hikes.

Get live prediction-market analysis, powered by Vera. Sign up for Vera.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.