Errant SpaceX rocket stage set to smash into the moon at 5,400 mph, seven times the speed of sound — NASA and South Korean orbiters prepare to track 3-ton TNT impact

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The upper stage of a SpaceX rocket that delivered two lunar landers in early 2025 is set to come crashing down on the lunar surface several months after it ended its mission. According to Japan Today, the large piece of rocket debris is expected to hit the moon at an estimated 5,400 mph or 8,690 kph, which is seven times the speed of sound.

While a piece of debris hitting the moon might seem like an inconsequential event for most people, scientists and astronomers are keeping a close eye on it because this will be one of the few times that an object will impact the moon while being observed. NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter will take before-and-after photos of the impact site, while the latter will also fly close to the stricken SpaceX rocket a few minutes before it begins its final descent.

NASA has previously deliberately crashed objects on the moon — it did this with sections of the Saturn V rocket and discarded Lunar Landers to conduct seismic experiments during the Apollo missions in the 70s. It repeated the experiment in 2009 with its LCROSS mission, where it crashed the probe near the south pole of the moon in search of ice.

What interests researchers this time is how the impact will affect the surface of the moon, which is expected to deliver energy that’s equal to about three tons of TNT. Even though this might seem like a huge amount of energy, we likely cannot see the actual crash from Earth. But because the moon does not have wind or an atmosphere, the ejected material could stretch for miles and be visible on telescopes.

“The gravity on the moon is low and there is no wind to blow the dust away,” said Benjamin Fernando of the Los Alamos National Laboratory. “Part of the reason for our interest in this event is to figure out how much of a hazard debris impacts pose to future astronauts.”

Space debris is not a major concern for the moon as it is for our planet at the moment, but this might change in the near future. As the U.S. and China are locked in a space race to see who will be the first one to land on people on the moon again after more than half a century, there will soon come a time when operators cannot just leave their rocket debris in an orbital decay, lest it come crashing down on their settlements and data centers.