Dogecoin (DOGE) Price: Testing Critical $0.19 Support After 30% Decline from July Highs

TLDR

• Dogecoin price dropped 30% from July peak of $0.28 to test critical $0.19 support level
• Late-July 20/200-day golden cross suggests broader uptrend remains intact despite recent decline
• Technical indicators show cooling momentum with RSI below 50 and bearish MACD crossover
• Majority of traders on major exchanges like Binance and OKX remain positioned long on DOGE
• Historical patterns show 4-hour RSI drops below 30 have previously triggered rallies up to 70%

Dogecoin has experienced a sharp correction in recent weeks, falling 30% from its July high of $0.28. The popular meme cryptocurrency is now testing a crucial support level at $0.19, raising questions about whether this will serve as a springboard for the next rally or if further drops are imminent.

The price decline comes after an impressive July performance when DOGE reached a five-month high. However, momentum has faded over the past two weeks as broader market sentiment cooled.

Despite the recent downturn, several technical indicators suggest the long-term uptrend remains intact. The late-July golden cross, where the 20-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average, typically signals a healthy long-term outlook.

Current price action shows DOGE testing support below both the 50-day exponential moving average (50 EMA) at $0.206 and the 200-day EMA at $0.207. The ability of bulls to hold the $0.19 support level will be critical for determining the next price direction.

Dogecoin Price on CoinGecko

If DOGE fails to maintain this support with a decisive daily close, particularly on high volume, bears could push the price toward lower support levels at $0.17 and potentially $0.15. These targets represent 12% to 24% further downside from current levels.

Technical Indicators Reset

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled considerably, dropping from overheated readings above 80 to below 50. This reset in the momentum indicator suggests the market has moved from overbought conditions to a more neutral state, potentially setting up healthier conditions for a new advance.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has also flipped bearish, confirming the loss of bullish momentum in the short term. This technical picture aligns with the price action seen in recent weeks.

According to crypto analyst KrissPax, the 4-hour RSI is approaching a level below 30 that has historically triggered substantial rallies. The last time this indicator fell to similar levels in June 2025, DOGE rallied over 70% in the following month.

What makes the current setup potentially more bullish is that DOGE is forming a higher low at around $0.20 compared to the previous low at $0.14. Formation of higher lows often leads to higher highs in technical analysis.

If history repeats and DOGE stages another 70% rally from current levels, the price could reach approximately $0.34. However, this would still leave the cryptocurrency more than 50% below its all-time high of $0.74 set in 2021.

Market Sentiment Remains Bullish

Despite the price drop, market sentiment data shows traders maintain a bullish outlook. According to Coinglass, while aggregate Dogecoin futures volume decreased 37% to $4 billion over a 24-hour period, open interest remained stable at around $3 billion.

This suggests traders are holding their positions rather than exiting the market, indicating confidence in a potential recovery. The long/short ratio on Binance shows long accounts outnumbering shorts 3:1, while OKX displays an even stronger 3.6 ratio.

These metrics reveal that although momentum traders have eased off, larger market participants continue to bet on a rebound. If macroeconomic conditions improve and the $0.19 support holds, this accumulated buying pressure could drive prices higher.

Macroeconomic factors have contributed to the recent pressure on risk assets like DOGE. President Donald Trump has introduced new import taxes ranging from 10% to 41% on goods from various countries, and the Federal Reserve has maintained steady policy rates.

Historical data suggests August has typically been a bearish month for Dogecoin. According to CryptoRank, DOGE is already down 5.31% this month, potentially heading toward an average historical August decline of approximately 10%.

The next few days will be crucial for DOGE as the market determines whether the $0.19 support will hold. A successful defense of this level could open the door to a rebound toward $0.22, while a break above $0.24 resistance might set the stage for a run toward the psychological $0.30 barrier.

Should the 4-hour RSI trigger another rally as it has done historically, DOGE investors might see the cryptocurrency attempt to reclaim previous highs in the coming weeks.