CryptoQuant CEO Declares Bitcoin Bear Market Over, Eyes 3-5x From Lows

TLDR:

• Ki Young Ju says the Bitcoin bear market ended this summer and a new cycle is in its early stage. 
• Inflows to Accumulation Addresses have risen sharply, and the 30-day average has also turned higher. 
• MVRV has stayed far below the 4 to 5+ peaks of past cycles, pointing to milder euphoria and capitulation. 
• Bitcoin is shifting from a retail and OG whale market toward ETFs, institutions and custodians. 

Bitcoin bear market conditions ended this summer, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. He shared the view on Bitcoin Magazine’s YouTube program BMTV.

Ki said the market has entered the early stage of a new cycle. He expects a rise of three to five times from the lows.

According to him, fresh capital is entering, early whale selling is easing, and large futures traders have rebuilt long positions near the bottom.

On-Chain Signals Behind the Outlook

During the program, Ki Young Ju pointed to three on-chain signals behind his Bitcoin bear market outlook. He said the PnL Index 365-day moving average remains soft for now. Even so, he noted that broader profitability and valuation metrics are approaching important inflection points.

Next, Ki discussed Accumulation Addresses. He said inflows to these addresses have risen sharply. In addition, he observed that the 30-day average has also turned higher.

Together, these readings point to fresh capital entering the market. Ki described this rise as a clear sign that new buyers are arriving.

Ki then addressed the MVRV ratio. He explained that it looks far less extreme than in earlier cycles. Previous peaks reached 4 to 5 or higher.

By contrast, he said this cycle has stayed much lower. As a result, Ki believes both euphoria and capitulation are becoming milder.

He also spoke about large holders. According to Ki, selling by OG whales is easing. Meanwhile, he said large futures players have rebuilt long exposure near the bottom. Taken together, he cited these developments as support for the end of the Bitcoin bear market.

Market Structure Shifts Toward Institutions

On the subject of ETFs, Ki said flows are improving. However, he stated that the identity of the end buyers remains unclear.

For that reason, he argued that custodial flows matter more at this stage. Without clear buyer data, he sees custodial flows as a key reference point.

Beyond the data, Ki described a broader change in market structure. He said Bitcoin is moving away from a market led by retail traders and OG whales.

Instead, ETFs, institutions, and custodians increasingly shape the market. Ki added that macro conditions and regulation also play a growing role.

Earlier cycles were driven mainly by retail participants and early holders. Today, Ki says a wider group of participants shapes the market.

Consequently, he places more weight on custodial flows than before. ETF inflows and custodian balances therefore receive closer attention.

Ki framed the discussion around three questions. Who is buying? Who has stopped selling? Is fresh capital still coming in? He treats these as the main points to watch after the Bitcoin bear market.

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