Critics Are Trying Their Hardest to Get ‘The Substance’ to the Oscars

If there is any part of the Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes nominations that has its journalist voters patting themselves on the back, it’s all the love given to body horror hit “The Substance.”

Similar to the Golden Globes, an awards group made up of global journalists, Critics Choice voters nominated the Mubi release for Best Picture, Coralie Fargeat for Best Director and Best Screenplay, Demi Moore for Best Actress, and Margaret Qualley, with additional nods for Best Hair and Makeup and Best Visual Effects.

Though the film was one of the most well-received premieres at Cannes this year, earning a Best Screenplay win for Fargeat at the festival, its awards prospects have been a huge question mark. Yes, the narrative around Moore taking on a bold, critically acclaimed comeback role decades after being one of the biggest movie stars in the world is the kind that traditionally garners awards attention, but reviews touting her performance also signal to voters that they’re in for one of the grossest body horrors they have ever seen. That definitely still draws certain Academy members toward watching the film, but even the tamest of horror films have historically been shut out of any Oscar nominations.

Ultimately, the goal of these awards given by critics and other entertainment journalists is to be influential, as there is very little overlap between those who vote for the Critics Choice Awards or Golden Globes, and those who vote for the Academy Awards. Overall, a Best Picture nomination for “The Substance” still feels unlikely, as that category is still voted on by all nearly 10 thousand members of the Academy, and there are still films like “Anora,” “Emilia Pérez,” “Conclave,” and “Wicked” that seem likely to rank higher on most ballots. The Critics Choice Awards, however, likely cement the film’s chances to make it into certain categories.

For example, the Actors branch is by far the largest sect of voters, and they determine the nominees for the acting category. It’s not a stretch to believe that even if the gory finale of “The Substance” makes them queasy, the overall plot about aging in the spotlight, and the lengths Moore goes to tell the story, can be enough to earn her a Best Actress nomination. Though it’s big that Qualley got in as well for Best Supporting Actress, the Oscars have one less slot, and the other five actresses recognized alongside her have been the main five predicted to earn the Oscar nomination. Though the recognition affirms there’s building passion for her, major wins at the European Film Awards (over “The Substance” in certain instances) tell us there’s also passion among Oscar voters for “Emilia Pérez,” so one could argue star Selena Gomez is ahead of Qualley (technically she and her co-stars won Best Actress at Cannes over “The Substance” pair.) 

Dennis Quaid, Coralie Fargeat, Margaret Qualley, Demi Moore at the premiere for ‘The Substance’ during the 77th Cannes Film FestivalMichael Buckner for Variety

Fargeat’s film is headed for a Best Hair and Makeup nomination, as that category has its own branch within the Academy, which can see the art within the grotesque. The bigger mystery is if Fargeat is a lock for Best Original Screenplay and Best Director. For the former category, Fargeat is likely. There are already very few women in the Best Director race, and contenders for that category often fill up the screenplay categories, so the Cannes win under her belt puts Fargeat front in line. With Best Director, there’s been a real commitment to including more women in the category, and more of an international lean, so Fargeat looks more like a top prospect for a Best Director nomination by the day.

To get back to the wider Best Actress conversation, although her winning the Volpi Cup for Best Actress at Venice usually means an Academy Award nod, the Critics Choice Association not nominating Nicole Kidman for “Babygirl” is a big sign of vulnerability in a very competitive Oscar race. Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”), Angelina Jolie (“Maria”), and Mikey Madison (“Anora”) seem to be the most locked in, with “Hard Truths” star and former Oscar nominee Marianne Jean-Baptiste on a roll with most major critics groups (despite the Globes snub,) so that fifth slot seems to currently be between Moore and “Wicked” star Cynthia Erivo. But again, highly decorated actresses like Kate Winslet, Amy Adams, Tilda Swinton, Fernanda Torres, and more are also all in the running, so Best Actress is hardly predictable this season.

Lastly, the Critics Choice Awards nominations denying “A Real Pain” a Best Picture nomination puts the film most on the bubble in terms of prospective nominees (let’s say “The Substance” replaced it.) “Challengers” made less of an impact than expected with the critics group (which you’d expect among Luca Guadagnino film’s main champions), only receiving nominations for Best Screenplay, Best Editing, and the two music categories, so its Best Picture hopes are declining as well.

“Blitz” and “Nosferatu” underperformed again, after both being shut out of Golden Globes nominations, meaning the only hope the two films have of getting into above-the-line categories will be a strong showing at the BAFTAs (which is entirely still possible, especially for “Blitz”).

It’s worth pointing out as well that “All We Imagine as Light” is the only Best Foreign Language Film not eligible for Best International Feature, and Hans Zimmer is the only Best Score nominee ineligible at the Oscars for his “Dune: Part Two” score, so the Critics Choice Awards basically gave their best prediction of what the five nominees will be in those categories with their nominations.

The Critic Choice Awards 2025 will air live on E! From 7-10 p.m. ET/PT on Sunday, January 12, and then will be available to stream the next day on Peacock.