Clarity Act passage odds rise to 30% on Polymarket after Senate revisions

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act just got a little less unlikely to become law. Polymarket odds for the bill passing in 2026 climbed to roughly 30% after Senate Republicans dropped a revised version of the sweeping crypto regulatory framework on September 10, up from the mid-20s where they’d been sitting for most of the summer.

What changed in the revised bill

The new Senate draft clocks in at 630 pages and incorporates more than 114 provisions that Democrats had requested. That’s a significant concession from Senate Republicans, who clearly decided that ideological purity was less important than actually getting to 60 votes.

Among the key structural changes: non-decentralized trading protocols would be required to register with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The revised bill also narrowed its DeFi provisions to focus specifically on spot and cash transactions.

The cloture vote is scheduled for September 15 at 2:15 p.m. ET. Senate rules require 60 votes to clear cloture, and with Republicans holding 53 seats, the math demands at least seven Democratic senators cross the aisle.

The long road to this vote

The House passed its version, H.R. 3633, on July 17, 2025, by a 294-134 margin. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill on May 14, 2026, with a 15-9 vote.

The inclusion of 114 Democratic provisions in the latest revision is the clearest signal yet that Republican leadership recognizes the bill can’t pass on party-line support alone. Some of those provisions reportedly center on consumer protections and ethics requirements.

What the Polymarket odds actually tell us

The odds have fluctuated widely throughout 2026. Earlier in the year, passage seemed even less likely as partisan disagreements over DeFi regulation and the scope of CFTC authority created seemingly intractable divisions.

Still, 30% means the market thinks there’s roughly a 70% chance the bill doesn’t become law this year. The cloture vote on September 15 will be the first real test. If the bill fails to clear 60 votes, it could be months before another attempt materializes, potentially pushing the timeline into 2027 and a new congressional session where the legislative slate gets wiped clean.

The CFTC-centric approach in the bill would also reshape the competitive dynamics among US regulators. The SEC has historically taken an aggressive posture toward crypto, filing suits against major exchanges and arguing that most tokens qualify as securities. Handing primary oversight of non-decentralized trading platforms to the CFTC would represent a meaningful power shift between the two agencies.

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