China stockpiled 343 immersion DUV tools for advanced chipmaking

Chinese chipmakers have accumulated an estimated 343 immersion DUV lithography chipmaking tools from 2012 to early 2026, many of which can be used to make chips using 7nm-class process technologies, according to a report from the Centre for Technology & Statecraft (CTS). The Washington-based group asserts that this equipment gives Chinese fabs considerable potential to produce sophisticated processors despite their inability to procure ASML's more advanced EUV systems. While the total number of ArFi tools owned by Chinese chipmakers seems plausible, some other estimates look questionable.

China has been particularly aggressive in procuring wafer fabrication equipment in recent years as the U.S. government has been busy imposing various curbs on its semiconductor industry. Since 2012, Chinese chipmakers, including logic and memory makers, have imported 343 immersion DUV lithography scanners from ASML, excluding imports to multinational fabs located within China.

The authors of the report claim that the existing export controls leave an important gap because lithography equipment originally acquired for less advanced process technologies can potentially be reassigned for more sophisticated process technologies, such as 7nm-class nodes (which the industry adopted in 2018 – 2019). This happens at a cost, but if no other options are available, Chinese chipmakers have no choice. They propose to prohibit exports of all immersion DUV systems to China and restrict replacement components and maintenance services for machines installed at advanced fabs, a proposal consistent with the bipartisan MATCH Act introduced in April.

CTS claims that 270 of these immersion DUV tools are ASML's Twinscan NXT:1980i scanners featuring a 38nm resolution and a 2.5nm matched-machine overlay capability crucial for multipatterning for 7nm-class nodes, which can be used to make chips using 7nm-class fabrication technologies. In addition, CTS claims that Chinese fabs own 22 NXT:2050i and six NXT:2000i systems. It is unclear how many of the 296 advanced immersion DUV scanners shipped to China are currently operational.

Dutch authorities introduced licensing requirements for exports of ASML's NXT:2000i and more capable immersion DUV scanners in September 2023, which effectively prevents their shipment to China. As a result, Chinese chipmakers had to opt for the least capable NXT:1980i. CTS now estimates that Chinese fabs purchased approximately 90 NXT:1980i scanners in 2024 and another 89 units in 2025, spending more than $13 billion during the two-year period. While the Netherlands expanded export controls to the NXT:1980i in September 2024, individual exports of this model can still receive approval. Furthermore, ASML can also potentially sell its NXT:1965Ci systems to clients in China, though we are not sure it has all the components needed for these outdated scanners.

ASML's own results reflect unusually high demand from China: the country represented 41% of its net system sales by shipment destination in 2024 and 33% in 2025. That share subsequently declined to 19% in Q1 2026 and 14% in Q2, which is something that ASML had warned about before.

One should keep in mind that the CTS numbers — ~90 NXT:1980i systems in 2024 and 89 in 2025 — cannot be independently reconstructed from ASML's published financial data. At most, ASML's disclosures provide a useful sanity check: China was indeed an exceptionally large destination during precisely those years, while ASML sold 129 and 131 ArFi systems globally in 2024 and 2025, respectively. If CTS' numbers are correct, then Chinese chipmakers bought the lion's share, 70% and 68%, of ASML's immersion DUV tools output in 2024 and 2025 despite export controls introduced in 2024. Meanwhile, the NXT:1980Di systems are readily available on the secondhand market.

*The source mentions the NXT:1980i machines, which probably include the original 1980Di and newer 1980Fi featuring higher productivity. We will use the 'NXT:1980i' name in this story for consistency, even though ASML has never produced a scanner named NXT:1980i.

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