CCTV released by Saudi Arabia shows the moment of an attack on Riyadh’s international airport that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300 on October 10

Richard Mortel from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Saudi authorities have released CCTV footage capturing a devastating attack on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport that occurred on October 10, resulting in 13 fatalities and over 300 injuries. The strike, which has been claimed by Yemen’s Houthi movement, has escalated tensions in the region, prompting concerns over the security of Saudi airspace. The release of this footage highlights the impact on both civilians and infrastructure, as well as the ongoing threats faced by the country. Markets have reacted to these developments, with a notable increase in the implied probability of a formal closure of Saudi airspace.

Key Takeaways

• The release of CCTV footage appears to have heightened security concerns, suggesting a potential formal closure of Saudi airspace.
• Market pricing indicates a 7.5% probability of airspace closure by November 1, with a recent increase from 6%.
• The January 1, 2027, market shows an 18% probability, reflecting an expectation of continued regional instability.

What to Watch

The Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) and Saudi Air Navigation Services (SANS) are key actors to monitor for any formal announcements regarding airspace closure. Further Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure could influence market expectations. Additionally, international responses, particularly from aviation safety agencies like the FAA and EASA, may impact market dynamics. Watch for any signs of de-escalation or ceasefire announcements, which could shift market pricing towards a NO outcome.