Cardano (ADA) Price: Whale Frenzy Moves $157M as ETF Chances Hit 75%

TLDR

• Whales moved $157 million in Cardano within 48 hours, increasing whale holdings to 10.3% of total supply
• Cardano ETF approval odds increased from 60% to 75% according to Polymarket data
• Long-term holders continue steady accumulation with minimal selling pressure
• Technical indicators suggest potential breakout toward $1 if $0.82-$0.83 resistance is cleared
• ADA currently trades near $0.78-$0.81 after pulling back from rally above $0.80

Cardano (ADA) has captured significant attention from large investors and market analysts following substantial whale accumulation and growing optimism about a potential ETF approval. These developments have set the stage for what some analysts describe as a “perfect storm” that could propel ADA toward the $1 mark in the coming weeks.

On-chain data reveals that crypto whales moved approximately $157 million worth of Cardano in just 48 hours. This movement involved around 200 million ADA tokens changing hands through large-scale purchases.

The result of this buying activity has been a notable increase in whale holdings, which now represent 10.3% of Cardano’s total supply. Market observers have pointed out that this pattern of accumulation mirrors what occurred in 2021 before ADA experienced a parabolic price rally.

Cardano Price on CoinGecko

Adding to the bullish sentiment is the increasing likelihood of a Cardano exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval. According to Polymarket data, the odds of such approval have jumped from 60% to 75% in recent weeks.

An ETF approval would mark a major milestone for Cardano, potentially opening the door for institutional investors such as pension funds and hedge funds to gain exposure to ADA through traditional financial markets.

Holder Behavior and Market Metrics

Long-term Cardano investors have maintained a pattern of steady accumulation since 2021 without substantial distribution. This behavior demonstrates continued faith in the project and willingness to hold positions for extended periods.

Short-term traders, who typically sell during price rallies, have shown different behavior in the current market cycle. Instead of taking profits, these traders have displayed small accumulation over recent days.

The low selling pressure represents a departure from patterns observed in 2021, suggesting more range-bound market conditions. Valuation metrics indicate a balanced market environment rather than overheated conditions.

Market temperature indicators that combine MVRV Z-Score, Realized Value to Transaction ratio, and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss are currently in neutral territory. This balance provides room for healthy price appreciation without signs of market euphoria.

Technical Outlook

ADA currently trades between $0.78 and $0.81 after experiencing a brief pullback from last week’s rally above $0.80. The $0.82-$0.83 zone represents a key resistance level that has capped recent price advances.

A decisive break above this resistance could open the path toward $0.93, with the psychological $1 mark becoming the next target. Some analysts have suggested $2 as a longer-term objective if momentum continues to build.

Support remains firm at $0.70, a level where ADA has consistently found buying interest since mid-2023. The formation of higher lows on weekly charts suggests ongoing accumulation.

Holders of ADA Cardano Are Not Selling
Here are some interesting Onchain and risk analysis metrics for ADA.

1️⃣Long-Term Holders (LTH)
Long-term investors have been steadily accumulating ADA since 2021, with no signs of major distribution so far. This shows strong confidence in… pic.twitter.com/LttL0KExKb

— Alphractal (@Alphractal) August 12, 2025

Open interest in ADA derivatives has reached $1.44 billion, one of the highest levels in months. While this indicates growing trader participation, it also sets the stage for increased price volatility.

Technical indicators show balanced conditions. The Relative Strength Index stands at 54.58, providing room for further upside before reaching overbought territory. The MACD line positions above the signal line with positive histogram bars, signaling continued upward momentum.

Bollinger Bands are compressing around the upper boundary, suggesting accumulating bullish momentum but also pointing to the possibility of a short-term correction if overbought conditions develop.

As long as ADA maintains support above $0.81 and successfully breaks through $0.884 with good volume, a push toward the $1.015 level could materialize in the coming weeks.

However, traders remain cautious, noting that failed attempts at breaking resistance could lead to a retest of the $0.70 support level or potentially deeper corrections to $0.60 or $0.51.

The end-of-August target price ranges from $0.95 to $1.015, provided the current bullish structure remains intact. The elevated adjusted Sharpe Ratio, which measures risk-adjusted returns, supports the potential for continued upward price movement.

Cardano’s current market dynamics reflect a combination of strong holder conviction and favorable technical positioning, creating conditions that could support further price appreciation in the near term.