The world's largest crypto is on track for a second straight negative October, defying one of its most reliable seasonal patterns
Bitcoin is down 8.4% so far this month. That puts it on track for its second consecutive negative October.
As of late October 2026, Bitcoin is trading in a band between $76,000 and $77,000. The decline for the month now sits at more than 8%, and the price is drifting toward the $76,000 mark.
How October went sideways
Earlier in October, Bitcoin rallied and peaked somewhere between $80,000 and $84,000.
That rally didn’t last. The price then fell sharply, hitting intraday lows around $76,500 as volatility picked up across the market.
Zoom out a bit and the drop looks steeper. Bitcoin’s 30-day high reached the mid-$86,000s before the slide began.
The current monthly loss of approximately 8.4% follows a roughly 3.9% decline in October 2025. Stack those together and you get back-to-back losing Octobers, assuming the month closes in the red.
The month that usually delivers
Since 2013, Bitcoin has posted positive October returns in 10 out of the last 13 years. The average gain over that stretch comes in near 19%.
This year’s performance runs directly against that historical pattern. And it comes against a backdrop of a much higher high: Bitcoin peaked in a range cited as above $110,000 to $126,000 in late 2025.
What traders are watching
The immediate focus is on technical support, the price levels where buyers have historically stepped in. Two sit right near the current price.
The first is the 100-day simple moving average. The second is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Both of those markers cluster around $76,000 to $76,200.
If the $76,000 area fails to hold, Bitcoin could face further downward pressure. A break below closely watched support often triggers stop-loss orders and forced selling, which can amplify volatility.
Macro conditions remain another variable worth monitoring. Bitcoin increasingly trades alongside broader financial markets, so shifts in the economic backdrop could influence whether support holds in the coming weeks.
For now, the near-term roadmap is fairly simple. Watch the $76,000 to $76,200 zone, watch how the month closes, and watch whether October 2026 officially joins October 2025 in the loss column.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

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