Bitcoin set for first red October in seven years: What will November bring?

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin is set to end October in the red, breaking a six-year “Uptober” streak.

• Traders are divided, with some fearing a significant correction ahead, while others still anticipate new highs in Q4.

Bitcoin (BTC) is set to end October in the red for the first time in seven years, with traders divided over whether BTC will continue the downtrend going into November. 

Bitcoin snaps “Uptober” streak

After six straight years of “Uptober” gains, Bitcoin is set to break the streak this year. 

October is often referred to by that fond nickname because it has delivered some of the best monthly returns for Bitcoin across the past decade, since 2013, with only two red Octobers, in 2014 and 2018. 

That record was bolstered by six consecutive years of gains from 2019 to 2024.

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The tables are set to turn in 2025 as Bitcoin trades 3.35% lower in October, with only hours left until the month ends.

“Last day of the month - we need a strong green candle today or we’ll see our first red October close in 7 years,” said analyst Jelle in a post on X.

Bitcoin monthly returns, %. Source: CoinGlass

The losses in October were amplified by a mid-month flash crash triggered by US-China tariff threats, and the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate cut on Wednesday did little to lift investor sentiment. 

“October turned red for the first time in 7 years!” TraderAAG said in an X post, adding:

“The crypto market humbled a lot of traders this month — momentum faded, confidence shaken.”

Fellow analyst Crypto Damus said the volatility Bitcoin experienced this month was “nothing normal,” as October is historically the second-best month of the year for BTC.  

— CRYPTO Damus (@AstroCryptoGuru) October 31, 2025

Uncertain November?

While some traders said a red October is “just a setup for an even bigger November rally,” others said the Bitcoin bull cycle had been shaken and could be nearing the end. 

The last time BTC ended October in the red was in 2018, and “November saw a brutal 36.57% drop,” said analyst Crypto Rover in a Friday X post, adding:

“Should we be worried this time?”

“What does a weak October mean for Bitcoin?” author and analyst Timothy Peterson asked in his latest post on X, adding that there is basically “no correlation between October and subsequent months.”

However, Bitcoin’s growth in Q4 usually slows following a weak October, Peterson added.

“The 3-month return for Bitcoin after a weak October averages 11% (2016-); for strong Octobers, it’s 21%.”

Bitcoin price performance after October. Source: Timothy Peterson

November is historically Bitcoin’s best month, averaging 46% across 12 years from 2013. This makes the period between October and December the best quarter for BTC price rallies, with average gains of 78%, according to data from CoinGlass.

​​Looking at recent years, Bitcoin rallied by about 57% in Q4 2023 and 48% in Q4 2024. The rally was more exponential in 2017 with gains of 480% between Oct. 1 and Dec. 1.

Bitcoin quarterly returns. Source: CoinGlass

Even in bear cycles, such as 2018’s -42% and 2022’s -15%, losses were outliers. But in any case, the last quarter of the year consistently delivers significant moves.

If history is anything to go by, Bitcoin’s price action may reverse in November, surging toward $150,000 by the end of 2025.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.